NCAA Tournament: Tar Heels Best and Worst matchups II
If the North Carolina Tar Heels are going to make it to the National Championship, they could use a little help. What potential matchups present the best path for such a run?
The trip to the Final Four, and for that matter the National Championship, isn’t always about being the best.
A lot of times it has to deal with matchups. Case in point Villanova.
In the first round of best worst, it was determined that Seton Hall would be a better matchup for North Carolina than Arkansas. Of course that is not how it went down and as Tar Heels fans collective hearts all stopped beating with three minutes to go, it understandable why.
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Regardless, North Carolina advanced and with that advancement the Tar Heels will face Butler in the Sweet Sixteen.
Butler was neither the best nor the worst matchup for the Tar Heels.
Out of the four teams they probably ranked as the second best matchup after Minnesota.
So with the Sweet Sixteen now set and ranked, lets reset and take this all the way through the the national title. L
et’s take a look at who are the best and worst matchups for the Tar Heels in the Elite Eight, Final Four, and National Championship game.
Elite Eight
Potential Matchups: Kentucky, UCLA
Best Matchup: Kentucky
Neither of the best nor worst matchups from the original post made it to the Sweet Sixteen. So this is a total reset.
At first glance Kentucky would seem like the worst matchup. One they already beat the Tar Heels earlier this year. They are a better rebounding team than UCLA and they allow fewer points.
However, the Tar Heels do match up better against the Wildcats.
When these two teams met in December, the Tar Heels lost by just three points in a classic game. Kentucky needed Malik Monk to go for 47 and Carolina’s best defender, Theo Pinson was injured. Plus there is the revenge factor.
Additionally, Kentucky is the worst shooting team of the two.
Malik Monk has been off of late and the Wildcats are not as consistent from either the three point line nor the free throw line as the Bruins. All in all, this is the team UNC would want to face in the Elite Eight if they beat Butler.
Worst Matchup: UCLA
UCLA does not rebound as well as the Wildcats, though neither team is bad, and the Bruins allow a whole lot more points than the Wildcats do, which is always good for any team.
However, UCLA shoots the ball well. Like best in the country well. They are reminiscent of Duke, if the Blue Devils had a number one overall pick point guard.
Duke beat the Tar Heels two out of three times and shot nearly as well in those games from the line as UCLA does on the season.
Plus UCLA has Lonzo Ball. As Tar Heels fans are well aware of, UNC is susceptible to good perimeter players going off on them. Lonzo Ball is a taller Russell Westbrook. He is a triple-double waiting to happen.
If UNC beats Butler, UCLA would be the team they should least want to see.
Final Four
Potential Matchups: Kansas, Purdue, Oregon, Michigan
Best Matchup: Oregon
Of the four possible teams, Oregon had the second fewest rebounds, the worst three-point shooting, and the second worst free throw shooting.
They also made the fewest three-pointers and the second fewest free throws. These are all positives for UNC.
The biggest negative for the Tar Heels is a guy named Dillon Brooks. Brooks is capable of winning a game all by himself. Brooks actually beat Ball out for Pac 12 player of the year. As mentioned in the UCLA piece, the Tar Heels have struggled against such players.
Oregon also was the best of the group at allowing points for the opposition meaning possessions will come at a premium in this game. Those two factors aside, the Ducks should be who Tar Heels fans are pulling for.
Worst Matchup: Kansas
At first glance, Kansas does not seem like a bad matchup for UNC. Their thin front court would struggle against the Tar Heels big man rotation of Kennedy Meeks, Isaiah Hicks, and Tony Bradley. Theo Pinson is one of the few guys who could hold Josh Jackson in check.
But let’s be real, Kansas goes beyond the numbers. Since Roy Williams arrived at UNC, he has played Kansas three times, all in the tournament. The Tar Heels have lost all three matchups to the Jayhawks by an average score of 78-64.
They have out-rebounded the Tar Heels 140-116 and out-assisted them 42-35. The Tar Heels in those three games shot only 36.5 percent from the field including an abysmal 20.4 percent from downtown.
Roy Williams is a great coach, but for whatever reason he can not beat his former school and head coach Bill Self. If UNC makes the Final Four, Tar Heels fans better hope the Jayhawks have already fallen by the wayside.
National Championship
Potential Matchups: Wisconsin, Florida, Baylor, South Carolina, Gonzaga, West Virginia, Xavier, Arizona
Best Matchup: Wisconsin
There is a reason that UNC was able to beat Wisconsin by 15 in Maui. The Badgers don’t do the things teams do to beat the Tar Heels. First, they don’t rebound great.
In Maui, the Tar Heels out-rebounded the Badgers 38-26.
Second, they are not a great shooting team.
Out of the eight possible matchups, Wisconsin was the third worst three-point shooting team and the worst free throw shooting team. They also shot the fewest free throws of the eight opponents.
The one thing Wisconsin does well is limit possessions and points scored.
In that first matchup the Badgers held the Tar Heels to just 71 points, their second fewest point total in a win all season. This can keep the game close and give the Badgers a chance. All in all, if UNC makes it back to the title game, Wisconsin is an ideal opponent.
Worst Matchup: Gonzaga
Like Wichita State before them, the major power from a mid-major conference is the team that should worry the Tar Heels the most.
Gonzaga is sixth in the country in rebounding and allows the fourth fewest points of all division one teams.
Additionally, of the eight remaining schools, they have the second best three-point shooting and best free throw shooting.
They also rank third in free throws made per game. None of these are ideal for the Tar Heels.
The one good thing for the Tar Heels is that Gonzaga likes to play through their post men. Teams that have done that have not done great against the Tar Heels.
Not to say Gonzaga doesn’t have a dangerous perimeter player, they do in Nigel Williams-Goss, but they find strength in their bigs.
Outside of the bigs though, Gonzaga is not a team UNC would want to face in the championship.
Sure it is fun to pull for an underdog Cinderella story, but the Bulldogs are not that.
Instead, pull for a Wisconsin team who matches up much better with the Tar Heels.
Next: Top UNC Sweet 16 Teams that never won a title
So look at this more as a who to pull for in other games list. If the Tar Heels continue to advance these teams will be the ones that are best suited to help the Tar Heels win another national title.
Not that the Tar Heels couldn’t beat any team, it just always helps when the matchup is favorable.