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UNC's projected NCAA Tournament bracket has a first-round loss in the cards

This has trouble written all over it for the Heels.
Feb 10, 2026; Coral Gables, Florida, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Hubert Davis reacts from the sideline against the Miami Hurricanes during the first half at Watsco Center. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
Feb 10, 2026; Coral Gables, Florida, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Hubert Davis reacts from the sideline against the Miami Hurricanes during the first half at Watsco Center. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

All eyes are on Selection Sunday for North Carolina and Hubert Davis, but the loss to Clemson in the ACC quarterfinals still stings. After the brutal exit in the conference tourney, are the Heels going to surprise some people in the Big Dance? Fans aren't feeling overly confident.

5-star UNC commit injured in his state title game adds to Hubert Davis' woes

The latest NCAA Tournament bracket projection from CBS Sports isn't going to make people feel better. That's because CBS has UNC taking home the No. 6 seed for the South Region. A six seed is bad enough, but this particular projection has the Tar Heels taking on No. 11 South Florida. Sorry, but that'd have upset alert written all over it.

North Carolina feels like it's limping its way into the NCAA Tournament

The Bulls are a team riding high right now. As of this writing, South Florida is 24-8 on the campaign and one win away from the AAC Conference Tournament title - Wichita State is hoping to get in the way of that.

Joseph Pinion, Izaiyah Nelson and Wes Enis have been turning heads this campaign and they're ready to do more of the same the rest of the month. Head coach Bryan Hodgson has worked wonders with USF, which has led to high interest from outside programs. Hodgson has been linked to the Syracuse job from the moment Adrian Autry was fired.

For now, Hodgson is still with USF and he's hoping the outside noise won't distract his team. Still, the Bulls are pretty dang stacked and if the Tar Heels face them in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, that'd be a concerning matchup.

In back-to-back games, UNC has been playing soft against both Duke and Clemson. In the meeting with the Tigers, UNC looked sluggish for most of the night, with a spirited comeback falling just short. This team has to play a complete 40 minutes to make any kind of a splash moving forward.

Should North Carolina beat USF, this bracket projection would have the Tar Heels taking on Illinois in the second round. That'd be another incredibly difficult matchup for Hubert Davis and Co., especially with Caleb Wilson (thumb) out for the season. For now, we must wait to see where the Tar Heels will be headed and who it will face in Round 1, but optimism surrounding Carolina is not high at all.

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