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NCAA Tournament: Tar Heels Best and Worst matchups

By Brandon Griffin

Mar 31, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; North Carolina head coach Roy Williams speaks to media during a press conference at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 31, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; North Carolina head coach Roy Williams speaks to media during a press conference at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports /
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If the Tar Heels are going to make it to the Final Four, they could use a little help. What potential match-ups present the best path for such a run?

As a No. 1 seed, UNC is one of the favorite teams to make it to the Final Four. However, as any good basketball fan knows, a lot of times it’s not as much about being the best squad but the matchups that a team will face in the bracket.

In UNC’s seven losses this season, teams did a combination of the following three things:

  • They slowed down the game limiting possessions
  • They scored from behind the arc and got to the free throw line
  • They out-rebound or limited the rebound margin of the Tar Heels

It spelled doom for the Tar Heels in those games.

So who are UNC’s best and worst matchups on their way to the Final Four?

Round of 32

Potential matchups: Arkansas, Seton Hall

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Best matchup: Seton Hall

In the second round best and worst are definitely relative terms as there are only two options, with one being more favorable than the other.

In this case, that team is Seton Hall.

Seton Hall does rebound better than Arkansas and is actually one of the top 25 rebounding teams in the nation.

However, they don’t shoot the ball as well. The Tar Heels have faced several teams that rebound well and still came out on top (Florida State).

While any matchup in the second round will be tougher than the first (No. 1 seeds are undefeated against 16 seed after all), Seton Hall presents a much better matchup for the Tar Heels.

Worst Matchup: Arkansas

Again this is all relative. Arkansas is not great on the boards (fourth worst out of possible opponents not named Kent State or Northern Kentucky) which would go to the Tar Heels favor.

The Razorbacks also allow a lot of points (222nd in the nation) which also is favorable to the UNC style of play. However,four of UNC’s losses came against teams that aren’t overly stingy on the points and like to play fast.

The Razorbacks also shoot decent from behind the arc (36.8%) and get to the free throw line (24 times a game).

The Tar Heels would still be favorites, but the match-up is definitely less appealing.

Sweet Sixteen

Potential matchups: Butler, Minnesota, Middle Tennessee State, Winthrop

Mar 11, 2017; Washington, DC, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers guard Dupree McBrayer (1) loses control of the ball between Michigan Wolverines forward Moritz Wagner (13) and Wolverines guard Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman (12) during the Big Ten Conference Tournament at Verizon Center. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 11, 2017; Washington, DC, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers guard Dupree McBrayer (1) loses control of the ball between Michigan Wolverines forward Moritz Wagner (13) and Wolverines guard Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman (12) during the Big Ten Conference Tournament at Verizon Center. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports /

Best matchup: Minnesota

The Sweet Sixteen does offer up a few more choices than the round of 32.

Of the four possible teams the Tar Heels could face, Minnesota would seem to be the better matchup for UNC.

First, they are in the top third of pace per game, which means they don’t slow it down too much, but also aren’t looking to run with the Tar Heels.

This should give UNC plenty of opportunities for fast breaks.

Secondly, though they do shoot several threes (18 a game) and get to the line some (24 attempts per game). They have the lowest three-point percentage and second-lowest free throw percentage of the group.

The only thing that should worry the Tar Heels about Minnesota is that the Golden Gophers get a lot of rebounds.

However, again that has never been a huge issue for the Tar Heels, so if UNC makes it to the Sweet Sixteen, they should be thrilled if Minnesota is there with them.

Worst matchup: Winthrop

I know what you are thinking. Winthrop is a 13 seed why would that be bad for the Tar Heels?

Well, remember when George Mason was an 11 seed and how that went for UNC? Seeding isn’t an exact science, and again matchups are everything.

Winthrop is the best three point shooting team of the four. They are also the second-best free throw shooting team of the four.

This is how Duke beat the Tar Heels twice this season.

Though Winthrop is not a great rebounding team, they can hit the glass enough to give the Tar Heels problems. Again a one versus a 13 seed is rare indeed and rarely does it end in a victory for the lower seed. However, if this were to happen, the Tar Heels would need to be on their guard for an upset.

Elite Eight

Potential matchups: Kentucky, UCLA, Kansas St, Cincinnati, Dayton, Wichita St, Kent St, Northern Kentucky

Mar 14, 2017; Dayton, OH, USA;Wake Forest Demon Deacons guard Mitchell Wilbekin (10) and guard Bryant Crawford (13) battle for ball with Kansas State Wildcats guard Kamau Stokes (3) in the first half in the first four of the 2017 NCAA Tournament at Dayton Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 14, 2017; Dayton, OH, USA;Wake Forest Demon Deacons guard Mitchell Wilbekin (10) and guard Bryant Crawford (13) battle for ball with Kansas State Wildcats guard Kamau Stokes (3) in the first half in the first four of the 2017 NCAA Tournament at Dayton Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports /

Best matchup: Kansas State

I went on and eliminated Northern Kentucky and Kent State as the two teams were the worst two teams in the South Power Rankings.

Could either team make it this far? Sure, but I could also win a million dollars and marry a supermodel.

Possible, but not likely.

So with those two squads eliminated the Wildcats of Manhattan present the best matchup for the Tar Heels.

First of all they are horrible at rebounding. Kansas State ranks 315th in the nation with only 32.6 rebounds per game. The Tar Heels average nearly 11 more than that.

That’s a huge advantage for UNC.

Secondly, the Wildcats are not great at shooting, Of the six teams eligible, they ranked fourth in three-point shooting and in free throw shooting. They also shot fewer three-pointers than any of the other options in the region.

Most people have the Tar Heels facing the Wildcats in the Elite Eight, albeit the ones from Lexington.

If the Tar Heels do face a Wildcats squad the one from Kansas is the one that would be the most welcomed.

Worst matchup: Wichita State

Though the Tar Heels would have their hands full with either Kentucky or UCLA, no team should scare the Tar Heels more than Wichita State.

The Shockers do everything that teams have beaten UNC have done. They rebound.

Wichita State is the second-best rebounding team in the bracket, behind only the Tar Heels, and rank fifth nationally.

The Shockers also score from the lines.

They have the best three-point percentage out of any team in the bracket. They additionally get to the line 24 times a game and  have the second- best free throw percentage of any of the eligible Elite Eight opponents.

Finally, the Shockers allow the 14th fewest points in the nation. They can slow things down and limit possessions for the Tar Heels.

A lot people think Wichita State was under-seeded. If they face the Tar Heels in the Elite Eight, much more might see why.

In the end, good teams will win no matter the opponent. However, certain opponents are easier that others.

For UNC to get to the Final Four, they will need to play good defense, score a lot of points, and as always get a little luck.

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