UNC Football: Why There Still Hope for the College Football Playoff
The UNC football team has defied all odds to have a chance at the CFP. Here’s why UNC fans should hold out hope that Carolina can make it to the semifinals.
Look how far the UNC football team has come! In KIH’s preseason preview, most of us picked UNC to win somewhere between 6 and 8 games. But the Heels have defied all expectations, finishing the regular season with an 11-1 record. The Heels have climbed all the way to #10 in the College Football Playoff rankings, and are a darkhorse candidate to make it to the CFP semifinals. A few weeks ago, I wrote an article theorizing what would have to happen for UNC to make the playoff. There was a lot that needed to happen.
If things go well this weekend, UNC could be playing for this trophy come January. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports
But now, with one game left, the situation is much clearer. In any scenario, two spots in the playoff belong to Oklahoma and the winner of the Iowa–Michigan State game this weekend.
The best chance UNC has of making the playoff is to beat Clemson, and have both Alabama and Stanford lose their conference championship games. If this happens, I would be shocked if Carolina (ACC Champions with a 12 game win streak and a win over the previous #1 team) was left out of the top four. Besides the two locks for the playoff, none of the other teams ahead of Carolina in the current ranking would be conference champions, and none of them would have as good a win as Carolina’s over Clemson. Is this scenario likely? Probably not. I’m not expecting a Florida team that just lost to Florida State 27-2 (that’s not a typo) to somehow beat Alabama. But stranger things have happened.
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A far more likely scenario is Stanford losing to USC and Alabama beating Florida. If UNC beats Clemson, would this be enough for the Heels to sneak into the top 4. I’m probably looking through Carolina-blue-colored glasses, but I think so. Hear me out. Alabama, Oklahoma and Iowa/Michigan State would be in the playoff. That essentially leaves Ohio State, Notre Dame, Florida State and North Carolina fighting for the last spot.
The Seminoles shouldn’t be ranked ahead of Carolina because (1) they aren’t conference champions, and (2) UNC would have beaten Georgia Tech and Clemson, the two teams FSU lost to this year. Notre Dame would have two losses, including one to Clemson, who UNC beat. And Notre Dame beat Virginia and Wake Forest by less than UNC did. Since the committee does look at games against common opponents, this might be enough to give Carolina the edge over the Irish. And finally, Ohio State. The Buckeyes were underwhelming all season, and finally lost two weekends ago to Michigan State. There’s really no reason why Carolina should jump OSU: their strength of schedule is worse, they would have fewer quality wins, and their loss was a lot worse than Ohio State’s. But I’m hoping that, in this scenario, the committee would focus on Carolina’s conference championship.
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For the last two years, the CFP committee has emphasized the importance of winning conference titles. TCU and Baylor learned this the hard way last year. So would the committee choose to pick a second team from the Big-10, leaving the Heels on the outside looking in? Or would they decide that a conference title trumps all the advantages that Ohio State has over Carolina? Without being a committee member, it’s really impossible to know. But maybe, just maybe, UNC would get the nod over the Buckeyes and get to play for a spot in the National Championship.
We will find out soon enough. And the only thing the Heels can control is how they play against Clemson. But for now, we can enjoy this speculation, and we can still dream that the Heels will make the Playoff. And even if the Heels don’t make it to the CFP, it’s been a pretty fantastic season. UNC is finally relevant in football. And that they are even in the conversation for the College Football Playoff is a great feat in its own right.