UNC Football: Could UNC Make the College Football Playoff?

Jul 20, 2015; Dallas, TX, USA; The college football playoff national championship trophy on display during the Big 12 Media Days at Omni Dallas. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

The question on every Tar Heel football fan’s mind now is one that was completely preposterous to suggest before the season started — could UNC make the College Football Playoff?

The short answer to this question is yes, but probably not.  The long answer: it’s very complicated. The UNC football team is currently ranked 17th by the College Football Playoff Committee.  This means that Carolina would somehow have to move up 13 spots in three weeks to sneak into the top 4.  Possible? Yes.  Last year, 11 of the teams ranked in the top 18 in week 12 had lost by the time the final rankings came out.  So if this type of shuffling happens again, Carolina would certainly be in the mix.

So what would have to happen in the next few weeks for Carolina to have a chance at making the Playoff?

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1. Win out, including beating Clemson in the ACC Title game

Pretty self-explanatory.  If Carolina loses, that’s it.

2. Clemson must win their final two regular season games

If Clemson loses to Wake Forest or South Carolina, beating them in the ACC Championship wouldn’t be anywhere near as meaningful.

3.  Have a situation similar to last season, where most of the top teams lose

This is the big one.  Even if Carolina wins out, they are too far behind to be ranked in the top four by the end of the season.  So they need some help.  No, they don’t need all the teams ahead of them to lose, because a win over a top-ranked Clemson team would be such a huge victory.  But they need most of the teams ranked ahead of them to lose. I don’t think they even need 11 like last year.  Just nine, well-placed, losses (like in the scenario below).  If this happens, Carolina’s chances would be pretty good.

One scenario that could see UNC into the Playoff

Nov 14, 2015; Chapel Hill, NC, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels wide receiver Quinshad Davis (14) during senior celebration before game against the Miami Hurricanes at Kenan Memorial Stadium. The Tar Heels won 59 – 21. Mandatory Credit: Evan Pike-USA TODAY Sports

#1 Clemson would have lost to UNC.

#2 Alabama and #8 Florida will almost certainly play each other in the SEC Championship. One team must lose.

#3 Ohio State and #9 Michigan State will play each other.  Ohio State also will have to play #12 Michigan, and most likely #5 Iowa in the Big Ten title game.

#4 Notre Dame has #11 Stanford still on their schedule.

#6 Oklahoma State still has to play #10 Baylor and #7 Oklahoma.  #10 Baylor also faces #18 TCU.

So, best case scenario:

Clemson loses. Alabama beats Florida. Ohio State beats Michigan State and Michigan, but loses to Iowa. Notre Dame beats Stanford.  Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, but then loses to Baylor, who loses to TCU.  Right there, that’s nine losses to teams ranked ahead of Carolina.

That would leave just Alabama, Iowa, Notre Dame, Utah, Florida State, LSU and Navy (and probably TCU) ahead of UNC.  Obviously, any of these teams could lose another game.  But I don’t think they would need to.

Alabama and Iowa would be in the Playoff in this scenario.

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But Florida State and Notre Dame have both lost to Clemson, which would probably put Carolina ahead of these teams.

Also, it is unlikely that Utah or LSU would be conference champions.  And we saw last year how much emphasis the committee puts on winning conference championships.

This would leave UNC, Navy and TCU for two spots, and I would be shocked if the Tar Heels didn’t get one of them.  The committee showed last year with Ohio State that they don’t care so much about a bad loss early in the season.  And who in the country would be playing better than a Carolina team on a 12-game win streak that just knocked off Clemson?

Now, I know this is a lot of “what if?” But, yes, it is possible for UNC to make it to the College Football Playoff.  Is it likely?  No.  But for Carolina fans, who have waited years for a team to finally break into the national picture, there is still hope, at least for a few more weeks.

What do you think?  Take the poll to tell us what you think Carolina’s final CFP ranking will be.

What will UNC’s Final Ranking Be?