UNC Basketball: After Iowa Loss, Toughness in Question

Dec 3, 2014; Chapel Hill, NC, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Roy Williams reacts in the first half at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

North Carolina lost to unranked Iowa at home 60-55 on December 3rd. This loss gave me much more of a reaction than usual. This time it was not a reaction about just a single game. It was a reaction deeper than that.

In a game where North Carolina held the Hawkeyes to shooting 32.7% from the field and 15% from the 3pt line, the Tar Heels still found a way to lose. Their defense was fantastic, they grabbed 24 offensive rebounds as well as out rebounding the Hawkeyes, even shooting better than Iowa from the 3pt line at 17.4%. Still, the Tar Heels found a way to lose. They shot 27.9% from the field, 17.4% from the 3pt line, Kennedy Meeks fouled out, Brice Johnson only played 12 minutes due to foul trouble, the team shot 23 threes. For once, free throws were not the issue this game, converting 13 out of 17 attempts.

A game like this can leave one with many questions afterwards, some of them being “Why is UNC attempting 23 3s” or “Why don’t they just dunk the ball when they are close to the rim” or the one I ask myself most “Why don’t these guys play hard?”

This loss, again, really exposed North Carolina’s flaws. They cannot shoot the ball from deep. They are not a tough team. They have a very hard time scoring in a half court setting. They start slow.

Bringing up the topic of toughness. The word “toughness” is a word that has been thrown a lot in recent years, and there are legitimate reasons contributing to that. Gone are the days when you see a bloody Tyler Hansbrough (I still can’t listen to the announcers without getting angry), or an angry Michael Jordan, or the ever tough and consistent Tyler Zeller, and just toughness.

Toughness is not a statistic you can measure. It is more of something you can see while watching. It was clear guys like Sean May and Tyler Hansbrough were tough players. When was the last time we had a guy like that? 2008-2009. You could probably say PJ Hairston was a tough player, but everyone knows how that played out for UNC.

Since Roy Williams took over at North Carolina they have lost 91 times in 12 seasons. That comes out to be 7.58 losses per season under Roy. Seems pretty good right on first glance right? Take a look at this (I’m choosing to not remind myself of 2009-2010 with this statistic).

2014-2015– 2 losses overall; 2 losses to unranked opponents
2013-2014– 10 losses overall; 7 losses to unranked opponents
2012-2013– 11 losses overall; 4 losses to unranked opponents
2011-2012-6 losses overall; 2 losses to unranked opponents
2010-2011-8 losses overall; 3 losses to unranked opponents
2008-2009 (NCAA Champs)-4 losses overall; 2 losses to unranked opponents
2007-2008– 3 losses overall; 1 loss to unranked opponents
2006-2007– 7 losses overall; 6 losses to unranked opponents
2005-2006-8 losses overall; 4 losses to unranked opponents
2004-2005 (NCAA Champs)– 4 losses overall; 1 loss to unranked opponents
2003-2004-11 losses overall; 4 losses to unranked opponents

Here’s a question: if UNC was playing a ranked team or an unranked team, which team would you feel UNC has a better chance to beat? In most cases one would be more confident beating an unranked team. Well, over the last 3 seasons you would be wrong in that assumption.

From the start of the 2012-2013 season through this current season, UNC has lost 23 times, and 13 of those losses were to unranked opponents. That comes to 56.52% of UNC’s losses coming to unranked opponents and 43.48% of their losses to ranked teams during that span.

From the 2003-2012 seasons (minus 2009-2010) UNC lost 51 games, with 23 of them coming to unranked teams — 45.1% of UNC’s losses over that span. So they lost 45.1% of their games to unraked opponents and 54.9% of their games to ranked opponents. So there you have it. UNC had a better chance to beat an unranked opponent than a ranked opponent. As it should be for North Carolina.

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There are many reasons for this. Losing to unranked teams has been an increasing trend over the last 3 seasons, which leads these unranked teams to believe they have a chance to beat North Carolina. And the formula has been the same for these teams over the last 3 seasons: out work and out hustle the Tar Heels and you will likely win. North Carolina has started typically slow in recent years against unranked teams, allowing the other team to gain confidence throughout the game. Simply out toughing the Tar Heels will get you a very good chance to win against them.

Out toughing North Carolina between 2005-2009 did not usually happen, thanks to Tyler Hansbrough. A team could out tough North Carolina from 2010-2012 and not win the game because the Tar Heels had guys who could shoot and score. So simply out toughing North Carolina did not always get you a win. Which brings us to the next issue: scoring.

When does Roy Williams have a very successful team when his team is better defensively than offensively? The answer to that is never. The national title-winning teams in 04-05 and 08-09 averaged 88 and 90 points, with both of those teams having 5 guys average double figures in scoring. The Tar Heels can play the best defense in the country but if the Tar Heels cannot score well they will not go very far.

This brings me back to the toughness and scoring issue. This 2014-2015 team does not seem to be very tough, which could be overcome if they had guys who could shoot the ball well. A team can not be tough at all and be successful still if they have guys who can shoot well. Marcus Paige is the only reliable option outside of the 3pt line. And it might be safe to say at this point Justin Jackson is the only other guy who can score outside of the paint at a consistent rate. That is not usually a very good recipe for success for North Carolina.

Roy Williams likes to play inside out, most Tar Heel fans know this. But what happens when you have an inside game, but no outside game? See this season and the 2013-2014 season. What happens when you have no inside game, but have an outside game? See the 2012-2013 season.

This brings up another question. Where are the shooters/scorers? Well, they’re on other teams. Roy Williams has tried very hard to recruit these guys, they have just gone elsewhere recently for whatever reasons. See TJ Warren, Rasheed Suilamon, Marcus Smart in the 2012 class. See also Matt Jones and Bronson Koenig in the 2013 class. How would UNC have looked the last few years if they had singed a few of these guys? It would be hard to tell, but one could assume with a few of these guys UNC would not be in the position they are now. Just being athletic will not win games anymore. Having guys who can shoot and score the ball well from outside the paint are becoming ever more important in today’s game.

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Marcus Paige is a fantastic player, leader, and person. He is a very tough player and has been the toughest player on the team since the beginning of the 2013 season. But there is something wrong with that, not Marcus, but with North Carolina’s point guard being the toughest on the team. One might question and argue that, but think of this. Was Kendall Marshall the toughest player on the 2011-2012 team? Was Ty Lawson the toughest player on the 2008-2009 team? Was Raymond Felton the toughest player on the 2004-2005 team? No, no, and no. Tyler Zeller, Tyler Hansbrough, and Sean May were the toughest players on their teams.

Can that be said about UNC’s big men now? Is one of Brice Johnson or Kennedy Meeks the toughest on the team? No, they are not. That belongs to Marcus Paige.

During the 2013-2014 season they needed to outwork teams to beat them. Remember when North Carolina beat #1 Michigan State at Michigan State, #3 Louisville on a neutral court, or at home at against the heralded #11 Kentucky? But also, do you remember when the Tar Heels lost to unranked Belmont at home, or on the road against unranked UAB, or at Wake Forest, or at home against Miami? The common theme in those games was “toughness.” When North Carolina came out swinging and out working the other team, they most likely won. When the Tar Heels got outworked, out hustled, and out toughed they would lose.

One would think that after last season these Tar Heels would have figured it out by now. But no, they have not. After each loss players say the right things like they are embarrassed, they know they have to out work the other team, but to this point they have not figured it out. If they had figured it out, a reaction like this would be being written.

Right now, it looks like not much has changed since last season except for a few new faces. It’s time for Brice Johnson and Kennedy Meeks to step up and be the tough and assertive big men UNC needs to be a great team. But as a junior, can one really expect Brice Johnson to all of a sudden be tough and show consistent effort? After three years of being at UNC, the answer is probably “no.” If someone who isn’t tough or show consistent effort starts in the frontcourt on a Roy Williams team, what does that say about the other front court players?

Tar Heel fans can expect another up and down season at this point, unless the Heels either outwork the other team every game or suddenly be able to shoot from outside the 3pt line well as a team. The Tar Heels know what they have to do to be successful, but now they have to shut up and just do it.

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