Three Impact Games in the ACC Coastal: Week 12

It is hard to be a coach in the NCAA. From fans to the Alumni base, very few are pleased with the job a coach does and one little slip-up can lead to a good coach losing his job. Les Miles is privately on the hot seat after two consecutive losses. That’s right — Les Miles who is 110-31 at LSU with a National Championship. There are already seven Power 5 openings currently and who knows how many more there will be by the season’s end. This off season will be filled with rumors and carousels as coaches change schools leaving new openings not previously available.

I bring up coaching because not only is Carolina playing a team whose legendary coach is retiring, but also because UNC’s coach is being mentioned in numerous coaching locations. One doesn’t have to look any further back than 1997, the last time UNC was a dark horse in college football, to realize the similarities.

Nov 14, 2015; Chapel Hill, NC, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Larry Fedora during the second quarter at Kenan Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Evan Pike-USA TODAY Sports

Back then Carolina was coming off an 11-1 season and looking like a serious threat in college football. Then Tar Heel coach, Mack Brown, was promising he would stay a Heel forever. Not long after, he was coaching at Texas, where he eventually won a National Championship. Could history repeat itself? Fedora is from Texas and their current coach is not popular with the fans or alum.

If Fedora were to miss out on the playoffs to a Oklahoma or Notre Dame despite going 12-1, he might consider Texas to be an easier path to the playoffs. Brand names seem to sell just as they do in basketball and though UNC is a brand on the hardwood, it is not on the gridiron. I have been as tough on Fedora these past few years as anyone. I have privately called for his job on more than one occasion, but believe he may have found his groove here. I hope he feels this is a destination and not a stepping stone and that he continues to build UNC into a football powerhouse just as it is in basketball.

These past rankings I mentioned a litany of things that would need to happen to help the Heels make the playoffs. One of those was the Heels winning out. However, one thing I didn’t mention was the opinion the committee would have of UNC. This week Carolina was ranked 17^th by the committee which is a 6 spot jump from the week before. Though not a great spot, and still behind five two loss teams, it does show that winning fixes most issues.

On Tuesday Jeff Long, the Committee Chairman, gave some hope amidst questions. When asked about the Heels, he said it was hard for the committee to overlook not only Carolina’s opening loss to South Carolina, but their two FCS opponents as well. First of all bad losses can be overcome, just ask Ohio State, and secondly a lot of FCS opponents are tougher than some of the teams in the Sun Belt or Conference USA. The hope though came when Long acknowledged the committee recognized that UNC was one of the best teams playing. How that came across to me was that as long as the Heels keep running on all cylinders they have as much of a chance as anyone. So with that good news relayed, it is time for this week’s three impact games in the ACC Coastal.

North Carolina at Virginia Tech (Saturday Nov 21^st @ 12pm)

Both teams are coming off big wins on the season. For Virginia Tech the win kept their bowl streak alive. For Carolina it kept their playoff hopes alive. If Virginia Tech wins, they become bowl eligible for the 23^rd straight season. If the Heels win they clinch the Coastal for the first time ever. This is the second game of three where the Heels can get revenge on a bad loss from last season. Last week they won. Can they do it again or will the Hokies pull the upset in Beamer’s last home game?

Things going for the Tar Heels: Outside of the nine straight wins and the 125 points scored in the last two weeks, there is the Frank Beamer guarantee. Coach Beamer pretty much said his team would beat an overconfident Carolina team after the Hokies beat Georgia Tech. Guarantees usually backfire on the people who make them. Tech has also struggled greatly against running QBs. Against six teams with QBs who can run, VT has given up 472 yards (78 per game) and three TDs. So far this season Marquise Williams has rushed for 659 yards and nine TDs. North Carolina has faced two teams this season with QBs who have a negative run total (in other words QBs who don’t run). They are 2-0 against those teams outscoring them 107-35. Virginia Tech QB Michael Brewer has minus 49 yards on the season.

Things going for the Hokies: Travon McMillan. The freshman running back has rushed for at 96 yards in six games this season, including his last five. If there is one area that the Heels struggle in, it is against the run where they are giving up 206 rushing yards per game. Also in spite of the guarantee, it is Beamer’s last home game. Plus UNC hasn’t won in Blacksburg since 2009 and Fedora is 1-2 against the Hokies so far with Carolina.

Nov 14, 2015; Chapel Hill, NC, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels wide receiver Quinshad Davis (14) during senior celebration before game against the Miami Hurricanes at Kenan Memorial Stadium. The Tar Heels won 59 – 21. Mandatory Credit: Evan Pike-USA TODAY Sports

The Hokies are going to be pumped for this game. They are wearing all black uniforms and want to send Beamer out with a bang. Thankfully College Game Day decided to go to Columbus, Ohio because the last thing the Heels needed was the curse of Corso hanging over their heads as well. In normal years, this game would be a low scoring affair but the Virginia Tech defense has not been as good as it has in the past. The Heels are playing great on offense and daring teams to pick their poison, load the box and Williams throws over you, play zone and Hood runs you down. Of course this still has the makings of a trap game with NC State looming, but unlike past years this team seems focused. If they come out and play like they have been and hold McMillan in check, the Heels have a great chance to clinch the Coastal winning their tenth straight game.

Louisville at Pittsburgh (Saturday Nov 21^st @ 3:45pm)

Like the previous game, both teams are coming off a big win. The Cardinals win over Virginia made them bowl eligible. The Panthers win over Duke, not only knocked Duke out of the Coastal race, but kept their own slim Coastal hopes alive. If Pitt wins out and Carolina loses out, Pitt steals the Coastal Crown. Can Pitt continue to win close games or will Louisville find a way to win their fifth game in a row?

Things going for the Panthers: It’s once again that time where I remind everyone about Tyler Boyd. He is a special talent and despite two not so amazing weeks still ranks 15^th in the nation with 69 receptions on the season (he didn’t even play in Pitt’s first game). Louisville hasn’t been great against the pass ranking 48^th in the nation giving up 18 receptions a game. Carolina ranks 17 spots higher and Boyd had ten receptions against them.

North Carolina Tar Heels /

North Carolina Tar Heels

Things going against the Panthers: Louisville has found its running game as running back Brandon Radcliff has rushed for 263 yards and two TDs in his last two games. Louisville’s dual threat QB Lamar Jackson has had six games this year where he has had over 200 total offensive yards. When Pittsburgh played North Carolina earlier, dual threat QB Marquise Williams had over 300 yards of total offense.

I should probably make up my mind on what I want the Panthers to do. Two weeks ago I wanted them to win out. Last week I wanted them to lose. I am back to wanting them to win out. What can I say, I go with what’s best for the Heels. Louisville is a hard team to figure. They opened the season by losing to Auburn (really bad loss), Houston, and Clemson (not bad considering the Cougars and Tigers are both undefeated). Since then they have gone 6-1 with their only loss to FSU. Of course only one of those wins was against a team with a winning record, NC State, and State isn’t much different from Louisville in that regard. Pitt keeps finding ways to win ball games and unless the news that Carolina has already clinched the Coastal disheartens them, I don’t see that changing this week.

Duke at Virginia (Saturday Oct 21^st @ 3:30pm)

Both teams are coming off tough losses. Virginia suffered their fourth loss of the season by a score, second in a row, knocking them out of bowl contention. Duke loss its third straight game and second straight by at least 18 points. Which team can finally do enough to get a win?

Things going for the Blue Devils: Despite some close calls Virginia is still a 3-7 team this season. Duke has destroyed bad teams and only has lost to Bowl teams. Jeremy Cash is possibly the best safety in the country and he just shut down Tyler Boyd. Coach Cutcliffe has led Duke to win the last three games in this series (he is 6-1 overall) by a average score of 32-17.

Things going for the Cavaliers: The game is at Virginia where the Cavaliers have recorded all three of their victories this season. Home is also where the Cavaliers came within a few minutes of upsetting the fourth ranked Irish. Duke has given up 564 yards rushing in its last three games (188 per game), while Virginia RB Taquan Mizzell has had over 100 all-purpose yards in five straight games.