Three Impact Games in the ACC Coastal: Week 6

Bye weeks were designed to give teams a rest and to help restore health during what is a long and hard season. Football obviously is a contact sport and any extra time off can do wonders for a team physically as well as mentally. Some byes are early in the season, as we saw with Miami and Pittsburgh, and some byes are much later, like Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech, who don’t get byes until the beginning of November.

The key often though is what a team does with its bye. For example, Miami and Pitt both had byes two weeks ago before going on the road to face real competition. Miami went into the bye having survived blowing a big lead to Nebraska, while the Panthers had just suffered their first loss of the season on a 57 yd field goal to Iowa. The Canes came out of the bye and thoroughly got beat by Cincinnati. Pittsburgh used the bye to improve it’s defense and walked out of Blacksburg with a Coastal win against Virginia Tech.

Why am I spending so much time discussing byes? Because this week North Carolina is on bye, and in the Larry Fedora era that has been a bad thing for the Tar Heels. In Fedora’s first season, the Heels had a late bye. After coming off one of the best wins of Fedora’s career, the Heels had two weeks to prepare for Georgia Tech’s triple option. The Yellow Jackets stung the Heels in Chapel Hill 68-50. The Heels were ineligible for the post season that year, but it was a game that would’ve cost them in a tie breaker.

In 2013, UNC had just gotten their first win of the season against Middle Tennessee State, the Heels were being talked about as dark horses for the Coastal. Once again they were given two weeks to prepare for Georgia Tech, and once again they were unable to stop the Yellow Jackets who scored 21 unanswered points in a 28-20 win in Atlanta. This game was the start of a four game losing streak for the Heels who needed a miracle just to recover for bowl eligibility.

Oct 3, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Larry Fedora talks with an official in the fourth quarter of their game against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Bobby Dodd Stadium. North Carolina won 38-31. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

In 2014, UNC was 2-0 and though they hadn’t won pretty, were still considered a contender for the Coastal Crown. That was until the game following their bye week. Once again they had two weeks to prepare, but this time they were facing an ECU team that had embarrassed the Heels at the Hill a year before. What should’ve been a revenge game was instead a disaster as the Pirates scored 70 while gaining 789 yds of total offense. This game also was the start of a four game losing streak that saw our defense give up 51 points a game.

So here we are, 2015. Once again the Tar Heels have two weeks to prepare for their next opponent. And once again they are riding high as Coastal favorites. ESPN ranked them third in their latest conference rankings. FPI has projected them the favorites to win the Coastal. The coaches poll is giving them votes after weeks of nothing. Shoot, even I, contemplated whether they could run the gauntlet in this weeks power rankings.

So is Fedora cursed? Are UNC bye weeks just giant party weeks where the team loses focus and everything goes to wrought? I really doubt it, plus this year offers two good things going the Heels way. First, new defensive coordinator Gene Chizik has the defense playing improved football. Secondly, the Heels are facing Wake Forest, who isn’t on the same level as those Tech and Pirate teams, though still shouldn’t be taken for granted. All that said, be weary Heels fans, either Fedora has turned the corner, or we are all in for some major heartbreak.

Nonetheless, even with the Heels on bye, there are still games to be played. With more conference games each week, every win brings a team closer to either declaring themselves a contender or a pretender. So without much more delay here are the latest three impact games in the Coastal.

Virginia at Pittsburgh (Saturday October 10th @ 12:30pm)

Like Pittsburgh the week before, Virginia is coming off a bye heading into a road show down with a Coastal foe. Unlike Pittsburgh, Virginia is not very good and their coach is sitting on one of the hottest seats in the conference, if not the country.

Things going for the Cavaliers: Pittsburgh only home game was a tighter than expected contest against FCS opponent Youngstown St. The Panthers still haven’t figured out their QB situation and they will once again be without reigning ACC player of the year, James Connor.

Things going for the Panthers: Even though Connor is out for the season, freshman Qadree Ollison broke out against Virginia Tech last week for 122 yards. Plus Virginia’s pass defense is horrible allowing three passing TDs a game. Biggest issue there? Pitt has the best WR in the ACC and maybe the country in Tyler Boyd. Also, Virginia hasn’t beaten an FBS team this season.

Could Virginia play like they did against Notre Dame and get a major divisional win on the road? Sure, but it is more likely they get crushed like they did against Boise St and UCLA. Before the bye the team clearly quit on Head coach Mike London, whereas the Panthers rallied around and emulated their defensive minded coach, Pat Narduzzi. Teams that quit usually don’t come back unless their coach gets fired. That hasn’t happened yet, so don’t be surprised to see WR Tyler Boyd reestablish his hold on ACC player of the year.

Miami at Florida State (Saturday October 10th @ 8pm)

The Hurricanes are coming off their first loss of the season on the road in Cincinnati. The Seminoles are coming off an escape at dangerous Wake Forest. Neither team has looked sharp this season, will this game get either on the right track?

Things going for the Hurricanes: They return to the state of Florida where they are 3-0 so far this season. Also FSU lost their star running back Dalvin Cook last week, so that’s also a bonus.

Things going against the Hurricanes: Miami has not beaten the Seminoles since Al Golden became the coach. Plus going back to the 4th quarter against Nebraska, the Canes have been outscored 57-26 in the last 5 quarters and OT. Also they just got beat by a Bearcats team using their backup QB.

Now I am not saying that the Canes have quit on Golden, but the fans sure have. The Canes could easily be 0-2 in the last two games if not for an OT same against the Corn Huskers. Meanwhile, Everett Golson continues to show why the Irish were so quick to dump him and why the Heels should be glad he decided not to honor his verbal to UNC. The game is in Tallahassee, so the Noles are the more likely team to win this one, only further adding to the fire under Coach Golden’s seat.

NC State at Virginia Tech (Friday October 9th @ 8pm)

Both teams are coming off ugly losses at home to divisional opponents. Can either team rebound to get an important cross divisional ACC win?

Things going for the Hokies: QB Michael Brewer has been cleared to practice and is probable to start this game. In the one half Brewer has played in this season, the Hokies actually outscored #1 Ohio State 17-14.

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Things going against the Hokies: Their defense isn’t as strong as it use to be. In their last two games, both losses, Virginia Tech has given up 348 yds and four TDs. State’s leading rusher, Matthew Dayes, has already rushed for 522 yds and 10 TDs on the season.

Last week, the Wolfpack got exposed playing their first power 5 team of the season. It is easy to drop 50 on South Alabama, not so easy against a school that can actually recruit. This game will be big for both teams as State tries to show they can beat a decent team and Virginia Tech tries to avoid losing 3 straight. With Brewer likely returning for the Hokies this week, look for the offense to respond and for to State to struggle to stop a Power 5 team for the second week in a row.

One to keep an eye on: Georgia Tech at Clemson (Saturday October 10th @ 3:30pm)

Oct 3, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets running back Mikell Lands-Davis (37) catches a touchdown pass against North Carolina Tar Heels safety Donnie Miles (15) in the third quarter of their game at Bobby Dodd Stadium. North Carolina won 38-31. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

One of these teams is coming off a signature win for the conference. The other is coming off an unraveling at home and a three game losing streak. The former is at home. The latter is on the road where they are 0-2 so far this season. Clemson should win this game by three TDs. However, it looked that way against Notre Dame too, but the Tigers never put the Irish away and needed a late defensive stand to avoid OT. Unfortunately for Tech, Clemson’s hard stretch doesn’t start for a couple more weeks, so they wont get the potential trap game with the Tigers looking ahead. To add to things, this will be the third of six straight games the Yellow Jackets could easily lose. With Pitt and FSU after this game, Georgia Tech may not win another game until Halloween and by then would have to win out just to become bowl eligible.

The only other game this week is Duke at Army. Though Duke’s offense has struggled in its last three games, it’s defense has been lights out. Plus so far against non power 5 teams this season, Duke is averaging 46 points a game, while gaining 592.5 yards per game. Since Army is one of just three independent schools left in the FBS, the Blue Devils should find their ability to score once again.

So with UNC on bye this week, Heel fans will have to find another way to pass the time. Thankfully, college football is happy to provide, so enjoy another week at the top and let’s hope this season really is the one where Carolina finally puts it all together.

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