Key Question: Can Joel Berry II Become a Great 3 Pt Shooter?
Keeping It Heel answers a key question regarding UNC Basketball and Joel Berry II — will Joel Berry II ever become a great three-point shooter?
Three point shooting, or lack thereof, has been a hot topic for the Tar Heels the last couple of seasons. Marcus Paige has been the only reliable efficient three-point shooter on both teams. Will the Tar Heels add Joel Berry II to the list of reliable three-point threats next year? Can Joel Berry II become a great three-point shooter? Yes he can, and he has shown Tar Heel fans a glimmer of hope at the end of the season.
On the year, Berry shot 17/48 from beyond the arc, which comes to 35.4%. That is a pretty solid number, especially for a first year point guard in Roy Williams’ system. Before the start of the ACC Tournament he shot 11/37 from 3, 29.7%, which is not good. But over the last 7 games of the year, Berry went 6/11 from 3 which is 54.5%. Those last 7 games gave Tar Heel fans a glimmer of hope that he can develop into a great three-point shooter.
But it’s not just Berry’s last 7 games that should be the only encouraging for UNC. Going back from 2003-2004 until now, UNC’s point guards on average shot 32.91% from 3 in their first year with Roy Williams. From Raymond Felton all the way to Joel Berry. Yup, the average for a first year point guard from 3 with Roy Williams was only 32.91%, going 168/510.
Here are the top 5 first year point guards with Roy Williams from 3 (with more than 20 attempts):
1) Kendall Marshall: 20/53= 37.7%
2) Ty Lawson: 31/87= 35.6%
3) Joel Berry: 17/48= 35.4%
4) Marcus Paige: 45/131= 34.4%
5) Raymond Felton: 35/112= 31.3%
See, Joel Berry II is in some pretty good company. But there’s more encouragement to come.
The point guards in their 2nd year with Roy Williams shot 344/882 from 3, which is 39%. So the point guards took 372 more 3s and made 178 more 3s than their first year. That is quite a bit of improvement. Here are the top 5 2nd year point guards with Roy Williams from 3 (with more than 20 attempts):
1) Wes Miller: 65/145= 44.8%
2) Raymond Felton: 70/159= 44%
3) Marcus Paige: 86/221= 38.9%
4) Nate Britt: 26/71= 36.6%
5) Ty Lawson: 30/83= 36.2%
Notice a few different names on their? That means those guys improved quite a bit. Notice how everyone in the top 5 their 1st year improved? Well, except Marshall who shot 35.4% his 2nd year going 28/79 from 3. That could be a pretty good sign of what is to come for Joel Berry.
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There have been 12 different point guards on the rosters from 2003-2004 to now. Doing the math and getting the mean and standard deviation of the made 3pt shots and attempted 3pt shots for the point guards’ 2nd year, you can get the 95% confidence interval of what Joel Berry II will probably shoot from beyond the arc next season.
The 95% confidence interval for the makes of UNC’s point guards in their 2nd year with Roy Williams is (13.87, 48.73). That means the range of made 3 point shot ranges from 13.87 makes on the season up to 48.73 makes on the season.
The 95% confidence interval for the attempts of UNC’s point guards in their 2nd year with Roy Williams is (38.66, 121.74). That means the range of attempted 3 point shots ranges from 38.66 attempts on the season to 121.74 attempts on the season.
Dividing the two together, makes/attempts, you get the 95% confidence interval of what Joel Berry II will probably shoot from beyond the arc next season, which is (35.88%, 40.02%).
Who knows, Berry II might outperform the interval or under perform the interval, but keep in mind that the point guards averaged 39% from 3 their second year with Roy Williams. In their 3rd year they averaged 40% from 3. So based on all the information stated above, it is safe to say Joel Berry II will probably develop into a great 3 point shooter. Roy Williams said all year Berry II could shoot the ball and he showed it at the end of the year. Tar Heel fans should get ready to see a breakout year from Joel Berry, and more than just from beyond the arc!