How Joel Berry II stacks up to other Carolina Freshman PGs
By John Bauman
Under Roy Williams, North Carolina has been blessed with some really talented point guards over the years. Ty Lawson, Raymond Felton, Marcus Paige, Kendall Marshall… those are some pretty big names and they all played at UNC and had great success.
This year, Carolina got a new freshman point guard by the name of Joel Berry II. Berry II was the 17th ranked player in the Class of 2014 and the second rated point guard to enter the college ranks this season (Emmanuel Mudiay was actually ranked second, but did not enroll in college). Berry II was a McDonalds All-American, played in the Jordan Brand Classic and was a five-star recruit by ESPN. He entered campus with high expectations and unrealistic expectations, even for a freshman as decorated as he was.
I wanted to see how Joel Berry II was stacking up to his fellow UNC point guards in their freshman seasons. I combed through the rosters of the last 10 years or so, looking for point guards. I then collected a snapshot of their freshman season stats and compared them to Joel Berry II’s stats, listed below through the 11 games he has played. Here is how Berry II stacked up…
(click on each header to order)
[table id=7 /]
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The table is really interesting to look at. Berry II’s stats compare most closely to Quentin Thomas, Larry Drew and Nate Britt at this point in his freshman season.
As you can see from the table, Berry II isn’t really enjoying the same success as some of the other great Carolina point guards. On the surface, he doesn’t look to be doing very well, but when you dig deeper, you start to see the potential of a great point guard.
First, let me defend Berry II for a second. These stats are from his first 11 games, while everyone else’s are from their entire first season. Judging Berry now is somewhat unfair, because although 11 games is a meaningful sample size in the college game, Berry II is just starting to hit his stride offensively. I’m sure he will start to put up more numbers in the second half of the season as he gets more playing time and more comfortable in the offense.
As proof, Berry II posted his highest offensive rating in his first seven games against N.C. Central, a mark of 132. In his last four games, Berry II has posted an offensive rating higher than 132 each game, including a 229 offensive rating against Ohio State on Saturday. Berry II is improving, and by the end of the season, his numbers should start to approach those of some of the more elite point guards to play for Carolina.
Also, Berry II is struggling to get playing time with Paige and Britt ahead of him on the PG depth chart. No other Carolina point guard on this list has had to deal with this kind of depth in front of him at his position. It is hard to rack up counting stats when playing behind two great guards in Paige and Britt.
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The case against Berry II? I think 11 games is enough to prove that in his freshman season, Berry II isn’t going to be the three-point shooter that say Ty Lawson was or the passer that Kendall Marshall was. Lawson shot 35.6% from three his freshman season, while Berry II is currently connecting at an 18.8% rate for the season. That mark could rise as the season goes along, (he has hit 2 of his last 3, for what that is worth,) but I don’t think Carolina got an elite shooting point guard in Joel Berry II.
Also, he isn’t the passer or distributor as some other Carolina point guards in recent years. I don’t think it is really fair to expect Berry II to be like Kendall Marshall (6.2 assists per game) right off the bat, but he is only averaging 1.3 assists per game this season. Partly, that low number is due to not much playing time. But Berry II isn’t stacking up to the elite Carolina point guards in terms of assists per game at this point in his freshman season. He did distribute four assists against Ohio State on Saturday, so maybe an uptick in assists is coming for the freshman from Apopka, Fla.
It is tough to project how good Berry II will be in two or three years, because he still has a lot of time to improve and grow more comfortable within the offense. All that fans can do now is look at the numbers of other Tar Heel point guard’s freshman seasons and see how Joel Berry II stacks up. I caution you from running and telling everyone that Mr. Berry II is on his way to playing like Quentin Thomas or Larry Drew II for the rest of his career, though. Berry II still has a lot of growing to do, and I think he can still grow into an elite point guard even though he has gotten off to a slow start this season.