UNC Basketball: How far will Heels rise in the Week 7 AP Poll?

The North Carolina Tar Heels won a big non-conference matchup on Saturday afternoon, sending the Ohio State Buckeyes packing to the tune of an 82-74 victory. We already examined the impact of the win on the UNC basketball team, now let’s look at the impact on the Tar Heels ranking in the AP Poll.

The Heels are currently ranked #24 after starting out the season in the sixth spot in the poll. UNC sports an 8-3 record and only has one bad loss on their résumé — a home loss to Iowa on December 3rd. Other than that, the Heels have had some good wins against Florida, UCLA and now OSU and have played a challenging schedule (14th hardest in the nation, per kenpom.com). The Heels will rise from the 24th ranking in the polls, but the question becomes how high.

By my count, five teams lost this past week that will have a big impact on how the Tar Heels stand in the poll. To start, of course Ohio State lost and will fall in the polls. OSU was ranked 12 spots higher than the Heels in Week 6 and I believe the Heels should leapfrog over them in new poll on Monday.

Oklahoma, ranked #15 in the Week 6 AP Poll, lost to #16 Washington on Saturday. That isn’t considered a bad loss, however, and the Sooners shouldn’t drop more than a few places in the poll.

Miami suffered a worse defeat in the eyes of AP voters, losing to Eastern Kentucky on Friday night by a huge margin (72-44). The Canes were ranked 18th coming into the weekend but will almost certainly fall out of the polls following that loss. That means UNC will move up at least one spot by default.

The two other teams above UNC that lost were San Diego St. and Butler. #23 Butler has lost two straight to Tennessee and Indiana recently, thus they are likely to fall out of the poll. #19 San Diego St. lost an overtime game to Cincinnati, a good basketball team but still a bad loss for SDSU. The Heels will likely leapfrog them in the Week 7 poll.

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How many other teams will the Heels jump over? That is the million dollar question at this point. They aren’t likely to get as high as their rank, #12, in the KenPom.com rankings, but they should get pretty close. Probably the best way to estimate how far UNC will rise is to look at a similar matchup of ranked teams from earlier this season and see how the result changed each team in the polls. The best similar scenario happened in early December when Wichita State and Utah played.

In the Week 4 AP Poll, undefeated Wichita State was ranked 8th in the country, while one loss Utah was ranked 25th. The two teams met at the Jon M. Huntsman Center in Salt Lake City, Utah for a non-conference game on December 3rd. It was close from the tip, with Wichita State holding a four point lead at halftime. But Utah roared back and won in overtime, 69-68, on a jumper by Delon Wright, which put the Utes ahead. In the next week’s AP Poll, Utah jumped up 12 spots to #13, while the Shockers fell to #11.

That game provides a good blueprint for what to expect tomorrow in the poll. Utah started off 17 spots behind the Shockers, won in overtime at home, and ended up three spots behind. UNC started off 12 spots behind Ohio State and won in regulation at a neutral site.

After looking at who lost this week and how far Utah rose after their non-conference win, my guess is that UNC will be ranked #15 in the country, behind Iowa State and Utah. The Heels will jump over Ohio State and get pretty close to where they were in the poll in Week 4 (12th).

Where do you think UNC will end up? Let us know in the comments below and on Facebook and Twitter!