UNC Basketball: Takeaways from First 8 Games

Remarkably, UNC is about at the 25% mark of the 2014-15 basketball season. Carolina has played eight games, with a 6-2 record, and has just five non-conference games before ACC play starts against Clemson on January 3rd. UNC has 31 games on the regular season record, and 8/31 is .258. That means a fourth of the season has gone by already. The season is flying by, isn’t it!

Now is also a good time to take a step back and look at some trends emerging from the Tar Heel’s season. As we did after three games, all of these takeaways are from the Tar Heel’s kenpom.com page. Here we go…

Is Marcus Paige in a shooting slump or not as good as expected?

Some shooting stats for Marcus Paige from the last three seasons

2012-13: 29.2 mins, 8.2 points, 34.4 3P%, 36.8 2P%, 16.3 %Shots,

2013-14: 35.6 mins, 17.5 points, 38.9 3P%, 49.3 2P%, 23.9 %Shots

2014-15: 31.1 mins, 14.9 points, 36.0 3P%, 37.5 2P%, 23.8 %Shots

As you can see, Paige’s %Shots is the same from his sophomore season, but his points have dropped and his shooting percentages are notably down. The biggest change is that two-point shooting column — Paige is hitting at the same rate he did his freshman season from inside the arc. That change in shooting from inside the arc is enough to account for his change in points per game.

So, is Paige in a shooting slump or can we expect his numbers to get back to the levels they were last year? I wish I had the answers to that question, but I don’t. I think Paige will shoot better from three-point range as time goes along this season, but I’m not sure about his two-point shooting. That has never been his strength, and I don’t know if his two-point shooting will rebound. Keep an eye on Paige’s two-point shooting throughout the season.

J.P. Tokoto is an excellent passer

I don’t remember Tokoto being as good a passer as he has shown this season. Tokoto is averaging 4.3 assists per game, but that doesn’t do Tokoto justice for his passing. How about this stat — Tokoto ranks eighth in the ACC in assist rate, remarkable for a small forward.

I could also point to a couple of excellent passes that Tokoto has made this year, like that quick touch pass off of a rebound to Marcus Paige in the Iowa game.

Tokoto added improved passing to already good defense, energy and athleticism this year. Heck, Tokoto is even shooting 4 of 12 from three-point land this season, which isn’t actually that bad! Tokoto’s play has been one of the bright spots for the Tar Heels this season.

UNC still stinks at three-point shooting

Carolina can kind of hide it this year, and they have more below-average chuckers at their disposal, but Carolina still can’t shoot three-pointers. First, the positives — Nate Britt is showing off an improved stroke this year at 35.3% from deep. Also good — Tokoto at 33.3%.

The bad? All the freshman are shooting a combined 15% from beyond the arc, which is about what Roy Williams would shoot if you asked him to before practice with nobody guarding him.

As a result of having a team populated by terrible shooters, Carolina is getting just 24.1% of its points from three-pointers, good for 337th in the nation. To put it another way, 14 teams are worse than UNC in that stat. To steal a line from Neil Everett and Stan Verrett on Sportscenter… “Is that bad?”

“It’s not good!”

It isn’t a be all, end all, because UNC can still score a lot inside the arc and be fine offensively. But not being able to shoot threes put a lot of stress on the big men and the two point shooters. When they have an off night, you get a game like Iowa.

Carolina is an elite defensive team

UNC ranks 13th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Heels are reaching that mark by holding their opponents to a 38.1 effective field goal percentage, a mark which ranks 6th in the nation. That is some good defense.

Carolina has elite length and on-ball defenders at every position. They block a lot of shots, force a lot of turnovers and defend every shot well. North Carolina is an elite defensive team. That won’t change all throughout the season, no matter where the Heels fall in the polls.

A few quick hitters…

Don’t worry about Brice Johnson.

I still believe in him. He played poorly against Iowa, carding an offensive rating of 47, which is awful. For the season, his advanced stats are almost all the same except for his offensive rating, which has fallen from an efficient 114.3 last season a pedestrian 103.2 this year.