Why UNC will defeat N.C. State on Saturday

UNC has had a tumultuous season, full of ups and downs, great wins and horrible losses. The Tar Heels sit at 6-5 now, coming off of their best win of the season on Thursday night against the Duke Blue Devils. The Tar Heels looked like a completely different team against Duke considering how they played earlier in the season against ECU and Clemson and others.

UNC has won 4 of their past 5 games, with the loss to Miami serving as the only blemish in the past month and a half. The offense has been playing outstanding football, with Marquise Williams played All-ACC caliber football and the running game finally getting going behind the strong play of T.J. Logan. The defense came alive against Duke, feeding off of the energy of a nationally televised game to play by far their best game of the season. The defensive line was dominant, the linebackers were attacking gaps and the secondary was solid all night long.

UNC looks to build off that momentum on Saturday against N.C. State, another rivalry game with just as much passion and history as the Duke rivalry. Coach Fedora is 2-0 against N.C. State in his time at UNC, and we all remember his first victory over the Wolfpack…

Last year, the win was a bit easier, as the Heels went into Carter-Finley Stadium and won 27-19 with no heroics or drama needed from any of UNC’s star players.

This year, the two teams meet again with lots at stake. Both teams are 6-5 and are fighting for bowl positioning and bragging rights for the next 364 days or so. I haven’t been confident about the Tar Heels play all season long. I can’t get a read on this team — they play down to competition (Liberty), rise up to great challenges (Notre Dame), flop at unexpected times (ECU, Miami), and play big with the game on the line (SDSU, Pitt, GT). But I have a really good feeling about tomorrow’s game, the best feeling I have had all season long. Even before the Duke game, I wasn’t sure. But tomorrow, I am certain that the Tar Heels will beat the 6.5 point spread and win by double digits over the Wolfpack. Here are my reasons why…

UNC has played better against a better schedule this season

N.C. State’s schedule was very top-heavy this season. The Wolfpack played FSU, Clemson, Louisville and GT, and the rest of the games have come against bottom feeders and sub .500 ballclubs. N.C. State got four wins against Georgia Southern, Old Dominion, South Florida and Presbyterian. Talk about easy victories. The easy games on NCSU’s ACC schedule were against Wake Forest, Syracuse and Boston College, while UNC’s easiest ACC games were against Virginia Tech and Virginia early in the season back when they were good.

Advanced metrics agree that UNC’s schedule has been much tougher. Jeff Sagarin slots UNC’s schedule as the 28th hardest in the country, while N.C. State’s schedule is 67th.

Throughout the season, UNC has played better football against a tougher schedule.

UNC is playing its best football now

This is the biggest reason. As we saw in the win over Duke on Thursday night, UNC is hitting its stride offensively in the second half of the season and defensively now. The offense has been good all season long, with Marquise Williams leading the way. The offensive line, however, has done its best work in the second half of the season (save for the Miami game) with guys coming back from injuries and playing good football together as a unit.

The defense hasn’t struggled from injuries like the O-Line has, just missed assignments and poor tackling. The Heels are now playing better team football, flying to the ball and gang tackling guys as a unit. Also, the defensive line is shooting gaps and moving the line of scrimmage in the Tar Heel’s favor.

UNC is playing its best football at this point in the season, and I think that positive play continues into the N.C. State game.

Home field and intangibles favor the Tar Heels

UNC is 4-1 at home this season, with the only loss coming against Virginia Tech way back on October 4th. Kenan Stadium has been a good home field advantage for the Tar Heels, and the Tar Pit will show up for the last game of the season and a rivalry game as big as this one is.

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I feel like the intangibles also favor the Tar Heels. Larry Fedora has dominated N.C. State and doesn’t want to loose his first game to them now and the Heels are jockeying for bowl positioning now. A loss sends the Heels to Shreveport, while a win most likely sends them to Washington D.C. I think the Heels are motivated to win by that factor.

Also, Marquise Williams got a little extra motivation this week when an N.C. State defender called him “soft.” If Marquise needed any extra reason to beat State, he got it right there.

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If you follow Keeping It Heel closely, you know that I don’t make many predictions about the football team because they are so hard to read. But I feel really confident in this football team’s abilities after watching what they did to a good Duke team.

For those three reasons, I am picking the Heels to dominate the Wolfpack. UNC’s offensive and defensive lines will be too much for N.C. State to handle, and I think Marquise Williams has another big day on the way to a Carolina victory.