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UNC Basketball: Butler Loss Signals Return of Last Year’s Bad Trends

By John Bauman

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UNC Basketball lost 74-66 on Wednesday afternoon to the Butler Bulldogs, a good but not great opponent that dominated the Tar Heels for much of the second half. The loss is disappointing for the 5th ranked Tar Heels, and this wasn’t the first time that the Heels fell to a lesser ranked Butler squad.

More concerning than the loss, however, was the way that the Tar Heels lost on the offensive end — by not shooting well from the free throw or three-point lines and by not producing on offense when Marcus Paige goes cold. Those reasons are concerning because they are the same maladies that plagued the Tar Heels last season.

UNC shot 33.6% from three-point land last season, good for 201st in the country. They shot 62.6% from the free throw line last season, the 343rd best mark in the country. It was painful to watch the Heels not be able to shoot the ball well from either behind the arc or from the charity stripe last season — nothing is more frustrating than watching your team flounder leads and wins at the free throw line.

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But there was hope among the Tar Heel faithful that those problems, especially the three-point problem, would be solved with improvement from the likes of J.P. Tokoto and Nate Britt and additions of the freshman (Justin Jackson, Theo Pinson and Joel Berry II.) Keep in mind that much of my judgement comes from one game and potentially one bad shooting night from the Tar Heels. But, unfortunately, it still looks like those problems of poor free throw shooting and three-point shooting are back.

UNC shot 18-32 from the foul line on Wednesday, a putrid 56.2%. Even Marcus Paige, usually rock solid, was off, as he shot 5-9 from the line. On the season, the Heels are shooting 65.9% from the foul line, a mark that ranks 225th in the nation as of Thanksgiving eve. Now, there is a chance that this was just a bad shooting night and that the Tar Heels will be excellent from the free throw line this season, but considering last year’s performance as a team for Carolina, I think the poor free throw shooting will plague the Tar Heels again.

The outlook from behind the arc isn’t much better. Carolina shot 4-16 from three against Butler on Wednesday, including a 2-7 performance from Marcus Paige. He is likely to shoot better, but the issue of poor three-point shooting for Carolina is here to stay. Besides Marcus Paige, nobody can shoot a three pointer for Carolina with any sort of consistency. Some of the players who were bookmarked to fix the problem?

Justin Jackson: 1-7 from beyond the arc

J.P. Tokoto: 0-6

Joel Berry II: 1-8

Nate Britt: 3-8 (lone bright spot!)

Theo Pinson: 1-4

Jay Bilas alluded to this on the broadcast of the game, and I will reiterate the point. No opposing defense is scared of any Carolina shooter except for Marcus Paige. When Paige is off, as he was at times last season and as he was on Wednesday against Butler, Carolina will struggle offensively. It looks like poor three-point shooting will plague the Tar Heels again this season.

The reason Carolina lost on Wednesday can probably be attributed most to UNC’s poor job of rebounding.

I’m not as concerned about that. I think that was a one game thing, plus, if UNC really needs rebounds, they can just play Jackson Simmons for 20 minutes a game.

But trends that Tar Heel fans saw last season of Carolina’s inability to convert from behind the arc or from at the free throw line reared their ugly heads again on Wednesday. Those two evils came back to bite the Tar Heels against Butler, as they did so many times last season, and they will continue to bite the Tar Heels for the rest of the season unless they can fix or hide their effects.

All stats from kenpom.com

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