UNC Basketball: Statistical Takeaways from First 3 Games

The start of the NCAA Basketball season seems to arrive in the middle of the night without much fanfare for a lot of teams. In the middle of the NFL and College Football seasons, College Basketball doesn’t get much national press until conference games start up in January and February. However, meaningful games are being played by teams and a lot can be learned from the early season matchups, even from as small a sample size as three games.

I checkout out UNC Basketball’s kenpom.com page and highlighted a couple of things that I thought that stood out. A note on kenpom.com — I will be using it a lot this season, and I highly suggest it if you are interested in College Basketball and numbers beyond just points, rebounds and assists.

Keep in mind that all these statistics are through a sample of just three games. That isn’t an insignificant number of games, however, as that is actually 10.3% of the Heel’s regular season schedule. 10.3 percent of an NBA regular season schedule is around 8 and a half games, so we are getting to the point where some of the things showing up on the stat sheet will develop into longer term trends, while some things are insignificant and due to the small sample size. I will do my best to differentiate between emerging trends and takeaways stemming from the three game schedule.

Long Term Trend: UNC still can’t shoot threes

13.4% of UNC’s points have come from three-point land this season, ranking 340th in the country. The national average is 33.8%, for reference. This is not insignificant and is a continuation of a trend that emerged last season, when the Heels had 16.8% of points come from the three pointer.

A lot was made of the Tar Heels three-point shooting or lack thereof last season, and it doesn’t look like the Heels have solved the problem this season. Again, Marcus Paige is the only reliable three-point shooter, with Justin Jackson, Theo Pinson and maybe Joel Berry II or J.P Tokoto adding the hint of a threat of a three-point shot.

If I’m an opposing coach, though, I’m still sagging off of every Carolina wing player except for Paige. The lack of three-point shooting was a problem last year and it will be a problem again this year.

Short term blip: Marcus Paige is using 15.4% of possessions

Love people tweeting me: "Marcus Paige has just 3 points. You are an idiot for making him 1st Team All-American." After ONE HALF OF PLAY.
— Jeff Goodman (@GoodmanHoops) November 15, 2014

Jeff Goodman has the right idea here. Yes, when you look at Marcus Paige’s stats so far this season, they are underwhelming. But he is one of the smartest players in all of college basketball — he knows when his team needs him to assist and to take a step back, but he will be there when the Heels need him to take a big shot or take over a game need be. Don’t worry about Marcus Paige’s numbers or lack of usage. He knows what he is doing and will be there for Carolina when they need him to be.

Long term term: Kennedy Meeks is more aggressive

Have you heard? Kennedy Meeks lost some weight this offseason…

That article and probably every T.V. broadcast you watch this season will be quick to attribute Meeks’s improved play to the weight he lost this offseason. Yes, him losing the weight helps him explode more on the block, but Kennedy Meeks is still the same player that he was last season. The improvement in his numbers comes from him being more aggressive and doing more with the extra possessions he is eating.

Meeks 2015: 133.6 Offensive Rating, 27.2% of Possessions Used, 27.6% of Shots Taken
Meeks 2014: 111.9 Offensive Rating, 23.4% of Possessions Used, 22.5% of Shots Taken

Even through three games, these numbers are significant. Meeks is being more aggressive and taking more shots, and his numbers are bound to go up as a result. I think his %Poss and %Shots used will both fall as UNC’s competition gets better, but an increase in both numbers from last season is here to stay.

Expect bigger numbers from Meeks this season as a result. One other big change in Meeks’s game from this season to last is…

TBD: Meeks ranking second in the ACC in fouls drawn per 40 minutes

Meeks’s 8.1 fouls drawn per 40 minutes has already fallen a bit from after his second game to now, and I’m not sure if this is a long-term trend or a blip statistically. Let’s look at it from what the numbers say and what the basketball court says…

The Numbers Say: Meeks’s FD per 40 minutes will drop

Meeks was good but not great at drawing fouls last season, drawing 4.9 per 40 minutes. That is way higher than the mark he is putting up now, so one would expect his percentage of fouls drawn to fall back to his 2013 levels as UNC plays more games.

The Basketball Court Says: Meeks’s higher percentage of fouls drawn could be here to stay.

Losing weight would seem to help with drawing fouls, because Meeks would be more explosive and tougher to guard.

The jury is still out on this one, and I will be monitoring it closely as the season goes along.

A couple smaller trends to look at briefly…

Isaiah Hicks taking way more shots

Hicks 2014: 18.2 %Mins, 11.9 %Poss, 9.6 %Shots

Hicks 2015 (this year): 39.2 %Mins, 26.5 %Poss, 22.9 %Shots

This is a good sign for Mr. Hicks. He had a rough freshman season last year, but it looks like he is finding his footing in the offense this year, playing more of his natural power forward position, and is seeing an increase in counting stats as a result. I will be keeping an eye on these numbers to see if Hicks’s high Possession rate goes down as UNC plays better competition.