Winning Back The Victory Bell: Duke Scouting Report

As I’ve mentioned all week in the Twittersphere, it’s time for Carolina to gain back possession of the Victory Bell. For the majority of the last decade and until I moved up to Pittsburgh, Carolina Football DOMINATED Duke Football. Naturally the David Cutcliffe hire and his development and restoration of the Blue Devis program has much more to do with Duke lifting themselves to the upper tier of the ACC Coastal (if there is such a thing) than yours truly moving up to Western Pa has. In 2012 and 2013, I was confident in North Carolina’s odds at continuing such dominance and was proven wrong on the field. 2014 is no different. Even with a 5-5 UNC heading to play a ranked 8-2 Duke, I’m as confident as the previous several years that Carolina will win this ballgame. Why is my confidence still high? Let’s first take a look at Duke’s defense.

Duke’s Defense

In the past couple of years, what’s made Duke jump from perennial ACC doormat to Coastal Contender and favorite has been Duke going from a defense made of bowling pins to a defense featuring some of the surest group of tacklers in the ACC. In 2014, that tackling hasn’t been as strong as it was in 2013. Duke’s also had its fair share of injuries on the defensive end with a major one coming from pre-season All-American and fellow Charlottean Kelby Brown. Brown’s injury hurt an already young front seven.

Nov 15, 2014; Durham, NC, USA; Virginia Tech Hokies quarterback Michael Brewer (12) throws the ball against the Duke Blue Devils at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Dolejs-USA TODAY Sports

The Front Six

DEs Dezmond Johnson (#42), Jordan DeWalt-Ondijo (#94)

DT Carlos Wray (#98)

NT Jamal Bruce (#91)

WLB CJ France (#54)

MLB David Helton (#47)

Key Rotation Players: AJ Wolf (#93) NT, Kyler Brown (#56) DE, Jonathan Jones (#34) DE

David Helton leads a rather veteran front 6 that’s played well and poor at times. Their defensive line is set up to clog linemen and the line of scrimmage and allow the backers and Jeremy Cash to roam and make plays. This hasn’t gone as planned despite Duke’s 8-2 record. A poor game that sticks out was against Pittsburgh when Duke was gashed by the likes of James Conner and company and the ground. Helton is without a doubt the best player in this front half and it’s shown with his 102 tackles. It will be critical for UNC to get a hat on this guy every play.

Sep 27, 2014; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Miami Hurricanes running back Duke Johnson (8) is tackled by Duke Blue Devils safety Jeremy Cash (16) during the second half at Sun Life Stadium. Miami won 22-10. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

The Back Five

Safety (Strike) – Jeremy Cash (#16) much like UNC’s LB/Safety Hybrid “Ram”

Safety (Bandit) Deondre Singleton (#33), much like a free safety

Safety (Rover) DeVon Edwards (#27), much like a strong safety

CBs Breon Borders (#31), Byron Fields (#14)

Key Rotation Players: Dwayne Norman (#40) Striker, Everett Edwards (#2) DB, Alonzo Saxton (#21) CB

Duke like many other teams in college football have begun to implement a 4-2-5 set to combat the every spreading and faster tempo offenses that plague this sport. The combo of Jeremy Cash and DeVon Edwards gives Duke some of the strongest tackling safeties in the ACC. However, the fact that these two have some many tackles shows how often plays especially in the run game are getting to the second and third level. Cash, one of the best defenders in the ACC, lines up in all areas of the field. With Cash’s pre snap positioning, it’s accompanied by two high safeties that are positioned just a few yards past the linebackers and a few yards outside Defensive Ends. These pre snap positions make Duke susceptible to the outside zone (Miami) and overload power run plays (Pitt). Duke’s Corners are decent athletes but are very young.

Oct 11, 2014; Atlanta, GA, USA; Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets running back Zach Laskey (37) is tackled by Duke Blue Devils defensive end Jonathan Jones (34) and defensive tackle Jamal Bruce (91) and defensive end Jordan DeWalt-Ondijo (94) and linebacker David Helton (47) in the first quarter at Bobby Dodd Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

This had led to Duke struggling to force negative plays for a second straight year. Don’t let the figure of allowing 18.1 points per game fool you, this Duke defense has given up almost 30 points a game to teams that I would believe have better than average offenses during ACC play (including Miami, UVA, Pitt and Georgia Tech). This stat should fare well for Carolina who possesses one of the better offensive attacks in the ACC.

Duke’s Offense

The Starters

WRs Max McCaffrey (#87), Jamison Crowder (#3), Issac Blakeney (#17)

TE David Reeves (#80)

QB Anthony Boone (#7) – main , Thomas Sirk (#1) short yardage

RB Shaquille Powell (#28)

LT Takoby Cofield

LG Lucas Patrick (#68)

C Matt Skura (#62)

RG Laken Tomlinson (#77)

RT Casey Blaser (#71)

Key Rotation Players: RB Josh Snead (#9), RB Shaun Wilson (#29), RB Joseph Ajeigbe (#23), WR Johnell Barners (#4)

Nov 1, 2014; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Duke Blue Devils quarterback Anthony Boone (7) rushes for a touchdown against the Pittsburgh Panthers in the first overtime at Heinz Field. The Blue Devils won 51-48 in double overtime. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Duke’s offense is centered around the option read out of the spread formation. If Anthony Boone and his 4 RB rotation can get this part of the game the entire offense opens up. Each Running back averages over 5 yards per carry and is dangerous in their own regard.

Carolina will need to know where Crowder lines up every play, be physical with him and force him to be spectacular.

It’s important to not how few negative plays the running backs have which credit should be sent to the offensive line. Duke’s offensive line is made up of all veterans and is very strong. They’ve faced the least amount of turnover among any team this year as highlighted by Lee Pace’s Tweet Below.

Kudos to Duke: Good teams almost ALWAYS have O-line starters looking like this (2 are 4th-year guys, 2 are 5th-yr.) pic.twitter.com/FIuT1pmhrc
— Lee Pace (@LeePaceTweet) November 17, 2014

When Duke decides to air it out over half of the targets got towards one of the best playmakers in the ACC: Wide Receiver Jamison Crowder. Duke will air it out to him and the rest of the wide receiver cast though a variety of quick screens and slants. This ball movement forces Carolinas secondary to man up and make the tackle at the first point of contact. Duke doesn’t just dink and dunk for a couple of yards. Often they’ll send Crowder deep on go routes off double moves and feed off the success of the run game through play action. Carolina will need to know where Crowder lines up every play, be physical with him and force him to be spectacular.

3 Keys To Victory

1. Carolina Must Finish Drives

A telling statistic from Duke’s previous game against Virginia Tech was pointed out by SB Nation’s Bill Connelly in a follow post to last week’s game. He pointed out that the main reasoning behind Virginia Tech’s upset victory was their success in finishing drives and Duke’s failure to muster more scores given their opportunities. Carolina must take advantage of every opportunity presented to them: Turnovers, Short Fields, Momentum, etc.