UNC vs. Clemson: Advanced Stats Breakdown

The North Carolina Tar Heels will take on the Clemson Tigers on Saturday at 7:00 p.m. on ESPNU. Before all ACC games this season, Keeping It Heel will be taking a look at the advanced stats to help get you ready for the game. Advanced stats is an umbrella term that describes the advanced numbers and stats that go beyond simple counting stats like passing yards per game and running yards per game. I like to think that they give a better picture of the teams playing on Saturday night. Most of the stats will be coming from either the Football Outsiders Almanac 2014 or FootballOutsiders.com. I encourage everyone to go check out those resources if you haven’t already.

We will be taking a look at Football Outsider’s FEI Offensive and Defensive Ratings. FEI stands for Fremeau Efficiency Index. Here is a describe of FEI from FootballOutsiders.com

"The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) considers each of the nearly 20,000 possessions every season in major college football. All drives are filtered to eliminate first-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores. A scoring rate analysis of the remaining possessions then determines the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams, win or lose, and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams."

Here are some of the numbers for 2014. I also added in the 2013 numbers for context. A couple of notes- Keep in mind that Clemson’s strength of schedule is much tougher than UNC’s through three games. After the numbers are a glossary of all the terms and then some analysis from me trying to make sense of all these numbers.

FEI Offensive Ratings

Clemson

Offensive efficiency
2014:-.252, 88th in the nation
2013: .348, 23rd in the nation

First down rate
2014:.536, 114th in the nation
2013: .711, 41st in the nation

Explosive drives
2014: .071, 96th in the nation
2013: .193, 18th in the nation

Methodical drives
2014: .179, 41st in the nation
2013: .141, 71st in the nation

Value drives
2014: .320, 88th in the nation
2013: .478, 26th in the nation

North Carolina

Offensive efficiency
2014: .028, 65th in the nation
2013: .094, 57th in the nation

First down rate
2014: .708, 62nd in the nation
2013: .654, 78th in the nation

Explosive drives
2014: .125, 68th in the nation
2013: .105, 85th in the nation

Methodical drives
2014: .208, 20th in the nation
2013: .195, 17th in the nation

Value drives
2014: .333, 79th in the nation
2013: .383, 56th in the nation
OE: Offensive Efficiency, the raw unadjusted efficiency of the given team’s offense, a measure of its actual drive success against expected drive success based on field position.
FD: First Down rate, the percentage of offensive drives that result in at least one first down or touchdown.
Ex: Explosive Drives, the percentage of each offense’s drives that average at least 10 yards per play.
Me: Methodical Drives, the percentage of each offense’s drives that run 10 or more plays.
Va: Value Drives, the percentage of each offense’s drives beginning on its own side of the field that reach at least the opponent’s 30-yard line.

Glossary of terms and stats via Football Outsiders

From these two sets of stats, the offenses of North Carolina and Clemson look similar. Remember, however, that the opponents of these two teams are nowhere close to equal. One thing that stood out to me was Clemson’s big change in explosive drives from this year to last. Last season, Clemson was one of the most explosive offenses in the nation, ranking 18th. This year, they are down to 96th, a fall that can be attributed to the loss of quarterback Tajh Boyd and wideout Sammy Watkins. With new quarterback Deshaun Watson, Clemson should start to see those explosive drives tick up and up as he gains more experience.

Another thing that stood out to me was North Carolina ranking higher in methodical drives than explosive drives, both this year and last. When he was hired, Coach Fedora championed a quick strike offensive approach and lots of touchdowns coming from explosive plays. It seems that UNC has actually been better at longer drives that don’t use a lot of clock, due to the speed of the offense, but do take a lot of plays. The lack of Marquise Williams’s strong deep ball and all the screen passes that UNC calls play into that trend towards a methodical offense in this year’s numbers.

FEI Defensive Ratings

Clemson

Defensive efficiency
2014: -.204, 45th in the nation
2013: -.332, 20th in the nation

First down rate
2014: .607, 30th in the nation
2013: .536, 1st in the nation

Explosive drives
2014: .179, 98th in the nation
2013: .114, 48th in the nation

Methodical drives
2014: .036, 9th in the nation
2013: .107, 14th in the nation

Value drives
2014: .250, 17th in the nation
2013: .270, 7th in the nation

North Carolina

Defensive efficiency
2014: .743, 122nd in the nation (out of a total 128 teams)
2013: -.142, 43rd in the nation

First down rate
2014: .833, 117th in the nation
2013: .622, 50th in the nation

Explosive drives
2014: .333, 126th in the nation
2013: .079, 17th in the nation

Methodical drives
2014: .250, 120th in the nation
2013: .194, 112th in the nation

Value drives
2014: .565, 116th in the nation
2013: .392, 73rd in the nation

DE: Defensive Efficiency, the raw unadjusted efficiency of the given team’s defense, a measure of the actual drive success of its opponents against expected drive success based on field position.
FD: First Down rate, the percentage of opponent offensive drives that result in at least one first down or touchdown.
Ex: Explosive Drives, the percentage of each opponent offense’s drives that average at least 10 yards per play.
Me: Methodical Drives, the percentage of each opponent offense’s drives that run 10 or more plays.
Va: Value Drives, the percentage of each opponent offense’s drives beginning on their own side of the field that reach at least the team’s 30-yard line.

Glossary of terms and stats via Football Outsiders