UNC Basketball: Things to Watch for vs. Kentucky
Two of the best programs in college basketball will meet on Saturday when the 21st ranked Tar Heels travel to take on the top-ranked Kentucky Wildcats in the 33rd meeting of one the sport’s marquee non-conference rivalries. The Heels lead the all-time regular season series 23-13 and is 2-1 against the Wildcats in the postseason. The team’s last 4 regular season games have been decided by an average of 2.5 points and have seen both teams win a pair with the Heels winning last year’s game in Chapel Hill 82-77.
Here are some things to watch for as the Tar Heels look for their 14th all-time win against a top-ranked team.
Pace and style of play: In the first half of last year’s game the Tar Heels struggled at times with the Wildcats length trying to score in their half-court offense, shooting only 38% percent in the first half. Once the Heels were able to pick up the tempo in the 2nd half thanks to some turnovers they were able to shot 57% for the half. The Heels will likely try to play this game at an up-tempo pace as these are two of the deepest teams in the county and have the depth to play at that pace. A fast pace game will also allow the Heels to avoid having to deal with the size and length of Kentucky one of the few teams in the county that could have an advantage over UNC in both size and length.
Battle on the inside: It will be a battle of two of the best front lines in the country but the Heels will face a hard test against a Wildcat team that has 3 7-footers and another player who is 6-11 in freshman Trey Lyles. The Tar Heels at times have struggled on the boards and finishing easy looks close to the basket in the early part of this season particularly in losses to Butler and Iowa. Kennedy Meeks, Brice Johnson and the rest of Carolina’s big men must find a way to finish close to the basket in this game but it is going to be difficult, the Wildcats lead the country in block shots with 86 blocks through their first 10 teams, the next closest team has 67. The Heels counter that by being one of the best rebounding teams in the country averaging 45 boards a game 3rd best in the nation. The battle down low will be critical.
Following the McAdoo blueprint: If the Carolina big men want to have success against Kentucky’s stable of shot blockers they should follow the blueprint that former Tar Heel James Michael McAdoo used last year. The former Heel was aggressive going to the basket against the Wildcats causing foul problems for all the big men and earning repeated trips to the foul line. He would shoot 19 free throws in the game while helping all the Coach Capipari’s big men get saddled with 3 or more fouls. The Heels post players must attack a rim and try to once again to draw fouls and trips to the free throw line where they must convert.
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The turnover battle: Perhaps the biggest key to the Heels win last year was them winning the turnover battle 17-9 which would lead to 20 points off turnovers for the Heels. It is hard to imagine Carolina having that same kind of success on the road against a team that is more mature than the team they played last season however the Heels still have élite level defenders and length on the perimeter in J.P. Tokoto, Theo Pinson and Justin Jackson that could cause problems for the Harrison twins and the Wildcats other perimeter players. The Tar Heels are averaging 8 steals a game and will need to be close to that number again to have a chance to pull off the upset.
The play of Marcus Paige: So far this season the star has not played up to his lofty preseason expectations struggling to get his shot to fall and even having problems at the free throw line. The preseason All-American and player of the year candidate is only shooting 35% from the field while averaging 14 points a game. He is settling to often for the outside shot with more than half his shots coming from the 3-point line where he is only shooting 34%.
If there was one game that the Tar Heel fans would hope that the star guard could break out it would be this one. The star played his best in some of the Heels biggest wins last season and this is the team’s biggest game so far this season. If Paige struggles it is hard seeing Carolina being able to win this game on the road.