What should UNC basketball’s record look like after non-conference play?

Not all wins are created equal, and neither are the 14 non-conference games that North Carolina will play this upcoming season.

Some should be little more than tune-ups. Others will provide an early indication of just how good this Tar Heel team can be. And then there are the games that could ultimately help shape UNC's résumé come March.

Instead of going game by game, let's break UNC's non-conference schedule into four tiers and determine what a realistic record should look like when conference play arrives. We'll also predict which games we think the Tar Heels will win and which ones they could struggle with.

Disclaimer: no one expects UNC to go a perfect 14-0 in non-conference play. While we would all love that, the chances are very slim.

Before we get into the actual schedule, here's our ranges of how we'd feel based on UNC's potential non-conference results:

12–2 or better: Thrilled. Couldn't have asked for a better start to the Michael Malone era.
11–3: Really strong start; exactly the type of start you'd want.
10–4: Good enough considering the quality at the top of the schedule.
9–5: Acceptable, but you'd want to examine who the five losses came against.
8–6 or worse: Disappointing. Anything worse would have Malone already on the hot seat (we wish we were joking, but we all know how high expectations are in Chapel Hill).

To make it simpler, we broke the schedule into subsections:

Games North Carolina should win decisively

Six: Marshall, Monmouth, The Citadel, Western Carolina, Wofford, Wyoming

Breakdown: If UNC loses any of these games, there will certainly be a significant level of concern. Not to discredit these opponents by any means, but these are the games that would be quite embarrassing to lose.

Expected Record: 6-0

Games UNC should be favored in and win

Four: Butler, Georgia, Georgetown, NC State

Expected Record: 3-1

Breakdown: The Tar Heels should be able to take care of business in these games as well. Of these games, Georgia (an SEC school) and NC State (because little brother wants to beat big brother) could be the challenges, but don't discount Butler and Georgetown for being sneaky, competitive games.

Toss Up Games

Two: Arkansas, West Virginia

Breakdown: While both games in this section are winnable, you still need to win at least one. Arkansas in the ACC/SEC Challenge at the Dean Smith Center feels like one of those "we must win" games, given the hype surrounding this potential top-25 duel.

In fact, the results of these two games will draw a ton of attention from the fan base when reflecting on non-conference play.

Expected Record: 1-1

Most Difficult Games

Two: Kentucky, Illinois

Breakdown: The Kentucky matchup in this year's CBS Sports Classic needs to be a win. North Carolina can't lose that game at Madison Square Garden, a battle between a pair of Blue Bloods with a rich history between them.

The Illinois game at the end of January, a rare non-conference matchup smack in the middle of ACC play, will likely be UNC's biggest test (other than Duke). Playing in Nashville, the Tar Heels should be more than settled into this new era of Carolina basketball, and by the time this game rolls around, it could be one of the marquee matchups in the country.

Given how good Illinois is projected to be, that will be a tough game for North Carolina.

Expected Record: 1-1

Overall: 11-3

While there are some "easier" games on the schedule, you can't take any opponent lightly. Especially with the change of the guard in Chapel Hill (new coach, new-look staff, and a completely different roster), UNC needs to come out of the gate ready to go, especially in this day and age, when more programs are competitive due to NIL factors.

Predicted Wins: Butler, Georgetown, Kentucky, Marshall, Monmouth, NC State, The Citadel, West Virginia, Western Carolina, Wofford, Wyoming,

Predicted Losses: Arkansas, Georgia, and Illinois

Even though we haven't seen all the pieces together in action yet, the Tar Heel fan base should expect a successful non-conference run. UNC has the talent; it's just a matter of when it all gels that will determine this year's early-season success.

If Michael Malone and his staff get this team rolling early, 11-3 might be the floor for this group in non-conference play.

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