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The odds are against UNC football, and the history is somehow even worse

UNC hopes that history doesn't repeat itself on Saturday afternoon when Notre Dame rolls into town.
ByNick Delahanty
Aug 29, 2026; Dublin, Co. Dublin, IRL; The North Carolina Tar Heels huddle in the first half against the TCU Horned Frogs at Aviva Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Laszlo Geczo-Imagn Images
Aug 29, 2026; Dublin, Co. Dublin, IRL; The North Carolina Tar Heels huddle in the first half against the TCU Horned Frogs at Aviva Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Laszlo Geczo-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Anything can happen on any given Saturday.

David can beat Goliath, even when the odds are stacked against them. North Carolina, a heavy underdog heading into Saturday afternoon's clash with No. 3-ranked Notre Dame, looks to make a statement, one that would help the program reach new heights.

Unfortunately, history hasn't been on the Tar Heels' side in big games like this. In fact, UNC has been terrible in matchups against top-five ranked teams.

How bad has it been? You may want to close your eyes before you keep scrolling.

UNC football’s history against top-five opponents is as brutal as it gets

North Carolina has played 43 games against top-five-ranked teams. Of those games, how many do you think the Tar Heels have actually won?

We'll give you a second to think about it.

If you guessed one, you are correct!

UNC's lone top-five victory came in 2004, when they defeated then-No. 4 Miami. Otherwise, the Tar Heels haven't beaten a top-five-ranked team in their history.

We're not trying to make things worse, but if you narrow the search down to games UNC has played against top-three-ranked teams, the Tar Heels hold a brutal 0-27 record in those games.

Saturday, that all changes (we hope!).

The good news is that history is behind us. It can't be changed. Saturday will be a new day; the historical records won't have any impact, and all that will matter is what happens on the gridiron at Kenan Stadium.

Even though history hasn't been on its side, North Carolina has a chance to turn the tide with a huge showing against the Fighting Irish. A win would mark the biggest regular-season victory in program history, as this group has a chance to do what no other UNC football team has ever done.

Will it be easy? No.

Will the odds be in Notre Dame's favor? Yes.

Can UNC pull off this huge upset? Heel yeah!

History is meant to be made, and UNC has a prime opportunity to do so this weekend. The past results have been ugly, but there's no better time to start turning things around than now.

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