The 2026 NCAA Tournament gets underway this afternoon, as Hubert Davis and the Tar Heels will take on VCU in the first-ever meeting between the two programs.
UNC vs. VCU hub: Everything you need for Round 1, including tip time fans will love
North Carolina has a lot to prove, especially after the disappointing end to the 2025-2026 regular season along with their quick elimination from the ACC Tournament. VCU, on the other hand, is one of the hottest teams in the country, having won 16 of their last 17 contests (including a current six-game winning streak).
The Rams are a strong three-point shooting team, as they shot over 36% from deep this season. They also do a great job of getting to the free-throw line, knocking down nearly 19 free throws per game while shooting a 74% clip from the line. Tar Heel fans know of the Tar Heels' woes at the free-throw line this season, as the hope is that UNC can improve in this area throughout postseason action.
VCU’s coach knows a ‘war’ is coming against UNC and Hubert Davis
UNC basketball vs USF odds
North Carolina has been considered a slight favorite since the first opening lines were revealed, and that has stayed pretty consistent leading up to Thursday night's 6:50 PM tip.
According to FanDuel, the Tar Heels are projected to win the game, but the spread indicates that the belief is that this game will come down to the wire. While matchups between No. 6 and No. 11 seeds typically provide some upsets, this is one that many have their eyes on as a potential bracket buster.
While it's expected to be a competitive contest, ESPN Analytics seems to have faith in the Tar Heels. They give them a 61.3% chance to win the game, a number that seems low but still indicates that North Carolina is projected to come out victorious.
Spread: North Carolina -2.5
Moneyline: North Carolina -144, VCU +120
Over/Under:Â 151.5
Prediction
Even without Caleb Wilson, the Tar Heels should be able to take care of business against VCU.
North Carolina has to make sure that they limit VCU's guards from driving and drawing contact, something the Rams have been elite at all season long. Both teams are streaky, especially North Carolina in Wilson's absence, as it will be critical to avoid long offensive droughts.
For the Tar Heels, they need to stick to their strengths. Feed Henri Veesaar early and often, allowing him to get his production while creating opportunities for others. Lock in defensively and get out in transition.
If North Carolina can control the glass (especially with their size advantage) and knock down their free throws, UNC should win this game and advance to play on Saturday.