How UNC can replicate its comeback win over Duke without Caleb Wilson on Saturday

UPDATE: It was just announced moments ago via Shams Charnia that Caleb Wilson is out for the rest of the season. He has undergone surgery on a broken thumb he suffered in practice.

The opening odds indicate that Vegas does not expect Caleb Wilson to play when North Caroline closes out the regular season against Duke at Cameron Indoor on Saturday night. The Tar Heels are heading into the matchup, after beating Duke 71-68 in Chapel Hill a month ago, as 15.5-point underdogs.

Yet, there are still reasons for UNC fans to believe that their team can replicate its come-from-behind win against Duke in February, and it all starts at the three-point line. 

The Tar Heels need to go nuclear from deep to trade punches with Duke

The lasting image of UNC’s upset win was Seth Trimble’s game-winning three at the buzzer and the subsequent court-storming (we’re still looking for the fan who punched a Duke assistant, by the way). However, that was just the cherry on top of an impressive shooting performance from the Tar Heels. 

UNC relies heavily on Henri Veesaar and Luka Bogavac for its three-point shooting, especially with Derek Dixon’s recent shooting slump. But against Duke, just about everyone was hitting from deep. Seven different Tar Heels hit a three in the game as they shot 8-19 from deep, one of nine 40+ percent three-point outings this season. In those games, even if they come on relatively low volume, UNC is 8-1. 

Last month, Wilson kept the offense afloat in the first half with a remarkable shot-making performance, especially out of the post, and crucially, he forced Duke center Patrick Ngongba into foul trouble that limited him to just 16 minutes in the entire game. Yet, even with Ngongba sidelined for much of the night, UNC scored just 16 points in the paint. 

Duke is too sound defensively for UNC to get consistent penetration. Wilson winning in isolation was the best option to create any meaningful rim pressure. Without him, paint touches will be even tougher to come by. So, Hubert Davis’s offensive strategy should be centered around springing his shooters beyond the arc and hoping that his team can overwhelm the No. 1 team in the country with a barrage from long-range. 

Bogavac’s recent breakout performance should give him hope that a long-range barrage is possible. In Tuesday night’s 67-63 win over Clemson, one of UNC’s nine 40+ percent shooting nights from three, Bogavac went 6-10 from distance, and Dixon broke out of his slump with a 3-4 outing from three. 

Even if UNC goes nuclear from the perimeter, beating the Blue Devils won’t be an easy task. UNC fell off a cliff defensively when Veesaar went to the bench on Tuesday night, and without Wilson, he’ll need to play close to a full 40-minute game. If those two things happen, the Tar Heels will have a chance to pull another upset, but that’s a thin path to victory.