The most eager North Carolina fans may think it took too long, but on the Tar Heels’ disastrous 0-2 West Coast swing, Hubert Davis finally pulled the ripcord on transfer point guard Kyan Evans and replaced him with four-star freshman Derek Dixon in the starting lineup.
While UNC lost Dixon’s first start at Cal, the team is 2-0 since, pummelling Notre Dame at home and coming from 16 down on the road at Virginia to stun the No. 14 Cavaliers. Dixon had his fingerprints all over both games, with 11 points on six shots against the Irish and another 11 with seven assists and four rebounds in Charlottesville.
Freshmen aren’t what they used to be in college basketball. For years, it’s been commonplace for a freshman to be the best player on your roster. Still, when a head coach inserts a young, talented freshman into the lineup, there are a few things you expect: energy, athleticism, maybe a defensive spark, along with plenty of mistakes and growing pains. Dixon has not been that at all.
Yes, he’s ostensibly stabilized a shaky perimeter defense, but UNC’s defensive rating with him off the floor is 9.4 points better than when he’s on the floor. The real impact he’s made is what you’d more commonly associate with a savvy veteran, like the one he replaced.
Derek Dixon's game is well beyond his years
The positive impacts that you see when you dive into Dixon’s on/off splits are exactly what you see when the Tar Heels take the floor. The freshman from Virginia is in complete control of the game. Not an overwhelming athlete, he picks his spots well, takes advantage of mismatches, and orchestrates the offense like a fifth-year senior.
With Dixon on the floor, UNC’s turnover rate drops 3.5 percent to 10.4 percent, a 99th percentile mark (according to CBBanalytics.com) in college basketball. It’s free throw attempt rate climbs to 44.3, a 91st percentile mark, from 38.1, and the offensive rating shoots up 7.1 points. Those offensive rating splits are even more dramatic if you control for just the last five games, which include Dixon’s only three starts.
On Saturday, Dixon took over the game in the second half to lift the Tar Heels out of the hole they spent the first half digging. He did it with heady outlet passes, consistently beating a stout UVA defense down the floor and activating Jarin Stevenson, who, with Evans, has been sent to the bench. Stevenson finished with a season-high 17 points against UVA, all in the second half, and eight courtesy of Dixon passes, either by direct assists or setting up a trip to the free throw line.
The point guard of the future is ready right now
Hubert Davis anticipated Evans to be the steadying force alongside Seth Trimble in his backcourt, but Dixon emerging to fill that role is even better. Sure, it relegates Evans, who didn’t come cheap in the Transfer Portal, to a reserve role and about 10 minutes a game, but it positions Dixon to be UNC’s point guard of the future. Beyond making the Heels a better team right now.
Dixon isn’t a typical freshman. Neither is Caleb Wilson. With that duo in place for right now, North Carolina might just claw its way back into ACC Title contention, right in time for next month’s showdown with Duke.