If you're Joe Lunardi, Jon Rothstein, or any of the former Duke Blue Devils who are college basketball analysts, we advise you not to keep reading... your feelings will be even more hurt!
You think they're gone?
The coast appears to be clear!
While it feels like the entire country is against the UNC basketball program making the NCAA Tournament, the data drawn by Evan Miyakawa seems to indicate that North Carolina is actually underseeded in this year's bracket.
Yes, you heard that right!
The https://t.co/cegyfz96ax bracket primer is here!
— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) March 17, 2025
In this bracket data deep-dive, I cover:
- Who are the true title favorites?
- Which teams have the most value?
- Who are the cinderellas?
- What can the "Kill Shot" tell us?
And much more 👇https://t.co/PaQqlFNNkq
Miyakawa, through the use of data, identified 12 tams that qualify as "under-seeded" due to, as he wrote "being much better than usual for their seed." The Tar Heels were one of the three "under-seeded" teams that he specifically mentioned, joining Gonzaga (8-seed) and VCU (11-seed).
Fun fact: did you know that, based on the data that Miyakawa considers, under-seeded teams have advanced 59% further in the bracket than other teams with the same seed.
Hmm... isn't that interesting!
In fact, here's a look at what Miyakawa had to say about this year's group of 11, 12 and 13 seeds, indicating that the group is strong and has plenty of potential to cook up some upsets.
"This year, the group of 11, 12, and 13 seeds is particularly strong. VCU has a 50.2% chance of beating 6-seed BYU in their first-round matchup, Colorado State has a 53% chance of beating 5-seed Memphis, UC San Diego has a 45% chance of advancing past 5-seed Michigan, UNC has a 54% chance of beating 6-seed Ole Miss (if they can get past San Diego State first), and even 13-seed Yale has a 30% chance of advancing past 4-seed Texas A&M."
While the majority of the country doesn't think the UNC basketball program belongs in this year's bracket, the data collected in Miyakawa's bracket primer (which can be found here) provides some information that contradicts that belief. In fact, the Tar Heels may be poised for a bit of a run, even if that run gets them into Sunday's weekend action.
Even if your opinion on the Tar Heels isn't changing (you stubborn people!), there's some tremendous data that can help you as you go through the process of filling out your NCAA Tournament bracket.
*Fun fact: I hope the naysayers stuck around and read this article and clicked on the above link.*