UNC Football: Tar Heels ranked 22nd in ESPN FPI

In the most recent ESPN College Football Power Index, the UNC Football program is viewed as a top-25 program heading into the 2022 season.

Is it ever too early to start looking at possible college football rankings for the upcoming 2022 season?

Of course, a lot can change as the season actually gets going, but ESPN has recently updated their College Football Power Index. In these new rankings, the UNC football program is among the top-25 programs in the entire country.

Before we get into the actual rankings, we’ll give you a little explanation about the FPI and what goes into it.

For starters, this is a way to measure a team’s overall strength while predicting game and season outcomes. In an article detailing the FPI, here’s how ESPN explains what actually is considered for each team’s rating:

"Each team’s FPI rating is composed of a predicted offensive, defensive and special teams component. These ratings represent the number of points each unit is expected to contribute to the team’s net scoring margin on a neutral field against an average FBS opponent.In the preseason, these components are made up entirely of data from previous seasons, such as returning starters, past performance, recruiting rankings and coaching tenure. That information allows FPI to make predictions (and make determinations on the strength of a team’s opponents) beginning in Week 1, and then it declines in weight as the season progresses. It is important to note that prior seasons’ information never completely disappears, because it has been proved to help with prediction accuracy even at the end of a season."

The 2021 season did not go as planned for Mack Brown and the Tar Heels, as they posted a rather disappointing 6-7 season. However, this did not stop them from earning the No. 22 spot in the most recent FPI rankings.

We all know that the Tar Heels have a question mark at quarterback, as Sam Howell has departed for the NFL. Even without Howell in the mix, North Carolina still returns a ton of talent, including star wide receiver Josh Downs, and some highly-touted recruiting classes should help the Tar Heels stay competitive in the foreseeable future.

North Carolina’s 10.9 FPI rating was the fifth-highest in the ACC, trailing only Miami, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, and Clemson. The projections currently see the UNC football program winning eight games this upcoming season.

Although the projections currently give the Tar Heels a very slim chance of winning the ACC as well as earning a berth into the college football playoffs, a lot can change as the season gets underway. The projections do have some faults, given that mostly focus on past results, so a quick start from Brown and his team could easily catapult them up the rankings moving forward.

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