March Madness: KenPom thinks the UNC Basketball program sucks
With the 16 teams remaining in this year’s March Madness tournament, the KenPom algorithm believes that the UNC basketball has no chance to win this year’s big dance.
The Sweet 16 is officially set for this year’s March Madness tournament, and the UNC basketball program is one of the teams that are fortunately still alive.
Even though there have been plenty of upsets (including North Carolina’s over No. 1 seeded Baylor), we are about to watch the hottest teams in the country square off in an effort to keep their seasons alive.
Ken Pomeroy, who runs kenpom.com, updated his college basketball rankings after the Round of 32 games concluded.
From the newly-published data, the KenPom rankings are telling us one thing:
The UNC basketball program sucks.
Wait… say what?!
Yes, based on the data that Pomeroy uses, the Tar Heels are viewed as one of the worst teams left in the tournament field. If you’re unfamiliar with the formula that is used, we’re here to give you some insight to fill you in.
The algorithm is analytically based, as it takes a closer look at the data that typical fans don’t even bother trying to look at. Here are some of the categories that are taken into consideration:
Overall Record
Adjusted Efficiency Margin
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency
Adjusted Tempo
Luck Rating
Strength of Schedule Rating
Non-Conference Strength of Schedule Rating
In his most recent rankings, the algorithm sets the UNC basketball program up as the No. 20 overall team in the country. Of the 16 teams remaining, only five currently have a lower rating.
Along with their low KenPom rating for the remaining tournament teams, Pomeroy essentially doesn’t see the Tar Heels having any chance to win the NCAA Tournament.
Gonzaga 27.8%, Kansas 13.4%, Houston 10.1%, Arizona 9.1%, UCLA 8.2%, Villanova 7.4%, Purdue 7.0%, Texas Tech 6.2%, Duke 4.8%, North Carolina 1.3%, Iowa State 1.0%, Providence 0.9%, Michigan 0.9%, Arkansas 0.9%, Miami 0.8%, Saint Peter's 0.04%
— Ken Pomeroy (@kenpomeroy) March 21, 2022
Pomeroy gives the Tar Heels a 1.3% chance to be the last team standing this season. His latest percentages don’t coincide with his algorithm, as North Carolina has a better chance of winning the tournament than Arkansas, a team that is rated ahead of the Tar Heels on the KenPom leaderboard.
Of course, we all love to see Duke having such a low percentage, but it’s a rather slap in the face to see North Carolina viewed in such a low manner heading into the Sweet 16. Here’s where we have an issue with the algorithm.
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Tell me where the algorithm takes into consideration the fact that this group has won 14 of their last 17 contests dating back to January 24.
Where does it mention that the Tar Heels pulled off a major upset by defeating the Duke Blue Devils in Durham in what will be Mike Krzyzewski’s final home game as the program’s head coach?
Did they forget to mention the 32-point blowout victory over Marquette in the tournament’s opening round, a game that set March Madness history in the process?
Does the algorithm show how North Carolina was flat-out dominating No. 1 seed Baylor before the ejection of Brady Manek and the extremely poor officiating fought the Bears back into the game?
Furthermore, where does it discuss the heart and chemistry that this team has shown over the last couple of weeks?
There are plenty of things we can point out, but it’s extremely important to note that these analytically driven databases do not include what we all see from watching these games.
The algorithm might not respect this year’s UNC basketball squad as we all do, but hey, this group has grown fond of proving everyone (and everything) wrong!
These KenPom ratings simply add more fuel to the fire for this highly motivated UNC basketball team, a group that has no intentions of going home anytime soon.
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