UNC Basketball: ESPN Insider says Tar Heels remain on bubble

Despite winning 22 games and earning a top-three seed in the ACC Tournament, the UNC basketball program remains on the bubble according to a renowned ESPN college basketball writer.

It’s understandable that the North Carolina Tar Heels remain a team that many are skeptical of as we inch closer and closer to the 2022 NCAA Tournament. They’ve gone just 1-7 in Quad 1 games this year, struggling to win big games or even compete in the majority of them.

Double-digit losses to Tennessee, Kentucky, Miami, Wake Forest, and Duke certainly give the NCAA Selection Committee reason for pause, but probably not nearly as much as an embarrassing nine-point home loss to Pittsburgh. And while they all make the Tar Heels’ single-digit loss to Purdue look like a quality defeat, it all adds up to an NCAA Tournament resume that simply isn’t a lot to brag about.

But still, the Tar Heels have won 22 games this season and 14-of-19 in a Power 5 conference, even if that conference is obviously having a down year. And they’ve done it all under the direction of a first-year head coach following the abrupt departure of three-time national title-winner Roy Williams.

We’re apparently in an age of college basketball where the only thing that matters are NET rankings, and a Power 5 team that’s won more than 20 games and lost fewer than 10 is considered negligible. While the NET rankings are a substantially better metric than the formerly overvalued RPI, I don’t think you can look at a team like the Tar Heels — currently 40th in the NET — and say that they aren’t among the 68 best teams in the nation, and certainly not when they’re playing at their best.

ESPN Insider John Gasaway apparently feels similarly to CBS Sports Bracketologist Jerry Palm, as neither currently have the Tar Heels in their projected NCAA Tournament field of 68. Gasaway says that the Tar Heels, who have a date with the Duke Blue Devils at Cameron Indoor Stadium on Saturday, still “have work to do” to earn their spot in the big dance.

"“Maybe a loss at home to Syracuse would have been as devastating for a potential No. 11 seed like North Carolina as commonly believed,” writes Gasaway. “Caleb Love wasn’t going to take that chance. The sophomore drained a key 3-pointer with 11 seconds remaining in regulation and then scored eight of his team’s 15 points in the extra session to secure the 88-79 win over the Orange. Now the Tar Heels will visit Duke for a rather well-publicized contest. Then, regardless of the outcome against the Blue Devils, UNC will receive a double-bye and proceed directly to the ACC tournament quarterfinals.”"

Maybe he’s right and the Tar Heels do have some work left to do before feeling like they’re comfortably in the tournament, but a loss at Duke in the scope of the NET rankings should barely move the needle. After all, the Blue Devils are 26-4 overall, first in the Atlantic Coast Conference and No. 4 in the country.

While a victory in Durham would obviously solidify the Tar Heels’ bid for an NCAA Tournament berth, a loss simply can’t do too much damage. Then again, if they lose to the Blue Devils in convincing fashion similar to the teams’ February matchup, they might have cause for concern. In the case of that, they might need to win a game or two in the ACC Tournament to go into Selection Sunday with a considerable amount of confidence.

As of now, the Tar Heels should be in the field of 68, but their performance on Saturday, whether it ends in victory or defeat, could leave a lasting impression on the committee. So, too will their game(s) in the ACC Tournament.

Their best bet? Just win.

North Carolina will take the court against Duke at 5:00 p.m. EST Saturday on ESPN.

Check back with Keeping It Heel for complete coverage of that, as well as all the latest on the UNC basketball program.