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UNC Basketball: Clinching scenarios entering final week of play

By Zack Pearson

SYRACUSE, NY - FEBRUARY 21: Head coach Roy Williams of the North Carolina Tar Heels reacts to a play against the Syracuse Orange during the second half at the Carrier Dome on February 21, 2018 in Syracuse, New York. North Carolina defeated Syracuse 78-74. (Photo by Rich Barnes/Getty Images)
SYRACUSE, NY - FEBRUARY 21: Head coach Roy Williams of the North Carolina Tar Heels reacts to a play against the Syracuse Orange during the second half at the Carrier Dome on February 21, 2018 in Syracuse, New York. North Carolina defeated Syracuse 78-74. (Photo by Rich Barnes/Getty Images) /
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We take a look at the clinching scenarios UNC has going into the final week of the season

The final week of Atlantic Coast Conference play is officially here as teams begin preparing for the annual conference tournament next week.

With just a few games left on the schedule, seeding for the ACC Tournament is on the line.

The week’s biggest matchup comes Saturday night when the North Carolina Tar Heels travel down the road to meet Duke for the second time this season. The two teams are in position for a double-bye in the ACC Tournament but the No. 2 seed could be on the line.

Entering the week, UNC is currently No. 3 in the ACC with an 11-5 record in conference play and will hold a one-game lead on Clemson who sits at No. 4.

Here’s how the standings look with teams that can catch UNC listed:

  1. Virginia 15-1 (clinched No. 1 overall seed)
  2. Duke12-4
  3. UNC 11-5
  4. NC State 10-6
  5. Clemson 10-6
  6. Miami 9-7
  7. Virginia Tech 9-7
  8. Louisville 9-7
  9. Florida State 8-8

The Tar Heels just need one win to clinch a double bye in the ACC Tournament or have a loss from one of a few teams who currently sit behind them. Those teams are Clemson, NC State, Miami or Virginia Tech.

The ACC’s tiebreakers can get pretty hectic with the first one being a head-to-head matchup.

UNC holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over Louisville and loses it to Virginia Tech, NC State, and Florida State.

Here’s the clinching scenarios entering the week.

Double-bye/No. 4 seed

The Tar Heels are in prime position to clinch a double-bye in the ACC Tournament.

UNC’s magic number is down to just one and they can take care of that themselves by winning on Tuesday night against Miami. The game is UNC’s home finale and senior night for Theo Pinson and Joel Berry.

Emotions will be running high but the night could be one for the Tar Heels if all goes well.

If UNC loses to Miami, they can still earn a double-bye. They would need a loss from Clemson, Virginia Tech and Miami in the Hurricanes finale game of the year. A loss from NC State would also be needed help if Clemson wins out.

Yeah, so the best way for UNC to get the double-bye is to win just one of their two final games.

No. 2 seed

UNC’s path to a No. 2 seed is simple in terms but it will be a difficult task.

With Miami and Duke on the remaining schedule, the Tar Heels can earn the No. 2 seed by winning both of those games. That would give Duke one more loss and even if the Blue Devils beat Virginia Tech, UNC would have the tie-breaker.

That’s easier said than done, however.

Duke has played very well since losing to UNC a few weeks back as they’ve rallied off five-straight wins. Four of those came without Marvin Bagley III.

No. 3 seed

This is the spot UNC currently sits going into the week. The Tar Heels can clinch at worst the No. 3 seed early this week and it starts with the Miami game.

A win over the Hurricanes is the perfect start. From there, UNC would need a win from Florida State over Clemson on Wednesday and then a win from Georgia Tech over NC State on Thursday night.

To make it simple: 1 win from UNC and 1 loss from both Clemson AND NC State in the final two games would give UNC the No. 3 seed.

If UNC goes 0-2…

Well, then they could be in some trouble. The Tar Heels could still get the No. 3 or No. 4 seed in the ACC Tournament if this happened but it would require a lot of work.

NC State could jump UNC if the Tar Heels went 0-2 and the Wolfpack went 2-0. The Wolfpack would hold the tiebreaker which would be win percentage against the top team. Neither beat Virginia, so it would default to No. 2 which likely is Duke.

The Wolfpack beat Duke while UNC would have gone 1-1.

Clemson would have to go 2-0 as well to pass UNC, as the Tar Heels have the tiebreaker on the Tigers.

Both Virginia Tech and Miami could tie UNC if they went 2-0 and the Tar Heels went 0-2. They would also have the tiebreaker due to head-to-head wins. They do play eachother in the season finale, so only one could actually jump UNC.

Louisville is the only 9-7 team that couldn’t jump UNC which means the worst the Tar Heels can do is the No. 6 seed in the tournament.

Next: College Gameday to feature UNC-Duke

Whatever happens, the Tar Heels are in good shape to start the week and pretty much control their own destiny.

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