UNC vs Duke: Preview, broadcast information and prediction

North Carolina takes on arch rival Duke for the first time in September in series history, and the Tar Heels are looking to avenge last year’s loss.

In Week 4, North Carolina heads back home after a road win over Old Dominion, taking their record to 1-2 on the season.

Though it was against lesser completion than Cal or Louisville, the Tar Heels looked much better in all facets of the game.

This Saturday will be the first time that the Tar Heels and Blue Devils have played in the month of September. Ever.

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Meeting in the season finale most years (49 times), a win this weekend could get the ball rolling and be a big momentum changer, helping Carolina turn its season around.

The Tar Heels are coming off of an explosive win last week, and will need another great offensive day to beat the Blue Devils.

Chazz Surratt has clearly cemented himself as the starter for the Tar Heels and brings a 70 percent completion percentage and near perfect 164.5 quarterback rating into Saturday’s game.

Carolina will have a lot to compete with, though, as the Blue Devils have one of the best defensive teams in the country.

Duke, ranked first in the country in rushing yards allowed per game at 47.7, and second in the country with 1.81 yards per rush allowed, will look to put a lot of pressure on Surratt and the passing game.

Offensively, Duke is led by a trio of runners, including their starting quarterback Daniel Jones. They have combined for 114 carries for 629 yards through the first three weeks, creating about half of the Blue Devils’ total yardage.

In his second year as the starter, Jones has focused on elevating his efficiency, particularly his completion percentage. It’s currently up three percent from last year, while still using his legs as his primary tool.

Though he doesn’t take many deep shots, only averaging about seven yards per attempt, he does have the ability to connect with receivers downfield.

The Blue Devils are riding a three-game winning streak with wins over NC Central, Northwestern, and Baylor.

There is one storyline that goes even beyond the game.

UNC quarterback Chazz Surratt was initially committed to Duke before a decommitment in June of 2015, and that’s when he chose to attend the University of North Carolina.

UNC key to the game

North Carolina’s key to the game is simple; their running attack and ability to stop the run.

We are all aware of Larry Fedora’s head scratching play calls at times, but it needs to be one of Carolina’s best called offensive games.

Due to Duke’s strong run defense, it will be very easy to get discouraged if the run game is not working early on, but the Tar Heels can’t completely abandon it.

Chazz Surratt is yet to throw the ball more than 30 times in any of the first three games, so putting all the pressure on him in his first rivalry game could be costly to the offense.

CHAPEL HILL, NC – SEPTEMBER 09: Receiver Brandon Fritts /

Utilizing the speed of some of the wide receivers in the play calling could come in handy with jet sweeps, or short screen passes. They are basically an extension of the running game since they start so close to the line of scrimmage.

Michael Carter and Jordon Brown, both averaging 5.4 yards per carry, have the ability to break big runs. Staying with the run game as long as the score allows will be crucial for offensive success.

On defense, they need to stop the run, something they have always had difficulty doing. The Blue Devils rank 22nd in the country in rushing offense, at 240.7 yards per game. The Tar Heels give up 173.3 yards per game on the ground, and that’s not a good sign for Saturday’s matchup.

If they can control Duke’s explosive running plays and put more pressure on Daniel Jones to throw the ball, they should be in for a good afternoon.

Duke is only 1-4 in Jones’ two years as the starter when he throws for over 300 yards.

The Tar Heels will not be able to shut down Duke’s three-headed rushing attack, but if they can keep the explosive run plays to a minimum, then their chances of stopping Duke’s offense will greatly increase.

Duke key to the game

For the Blue Devils, it’s all about sophomore quarterback Daniel Jones.

Last year, he torched the Tar Heels for almost 100 yards on the ground and added two rushing touchdowns.

Though the Tar Heel defense was able to get in the backfield at ease last week, totaling eight tackles for loss, they have always struggled against a team with a mobile quarterback.

Because Jones doesn’t take many shots down the field, Carolina will crowd the line and attempt to contain his ability to run.

Baylor was able to minimize Jones’ impact last week by bringing many different blitzes, holding him to just 27 yards on the ground.

If Jones gets a couple of good runs under his belt to start the game, look for Carolina to zone in on him, which could create better opportunities for the running back tandem of Shaun Wilson and Brittain Brown.

One question we’d like to see answered

Can Carolina finally have a season in which they beat both of their rivals, Duke and N.C. State?

Larry Fedora has always struggled to beat both Duke and N.C. State in the same season, only doing it once, in 2015, since he arrived in Chapel Hill.

This weekend can go a long way in determining the outcome of the season. If the Tar Heels can’t show up to play AND beat their biggest rival, what message does that send to fans for the rest of the season?

I know players should be fired up for every game, especially against their biggest rivals, but the coach also plays a big role in motivating the team.

What you need to know

WHAT? Duke 3-0 (O-0 ACC) @ UNC 1-2 (0-1 ACC)
WHEN? Saturday, September 23 at 3:30 p.m. ET
WHERE? Kenan Stadium. Chapel Hill, North Carolina
TV? ESPNU/Watchespn.com
RADIO? Tar Heel Sports Network.
WEATHER? Mostly sunny. High 86F. Winds light and variable according to Weather.com.
LINE? Duke -2.5
ALL-TIME SERIES? UNC leads the series 61-38- 4. Duke has won three of last five, including last year.
PREDICTION? UNC 28, Duke 24.

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