UNC basketball: Have Tar Heels lost recruiting edge to UK and Duke?

Has Roy Williams fallen behind Coach K and Calipari in the recruiting cycle?

Duke and Kentucky have had the top freshmen college basketball recruiting classes in 2014, 2015 and 2016.

Prior to the past three years, Duke and Kentucky dominated the recruiting scene by signing some of the best basketball players while UNC was the forgotten powerhouse who was once the top recruiting basketball program in the nation.

Although North Carolina has had their share of top recruiting classes in recent years, including 2010 (Harrison Barnes, Kendall Marshall, Reggie Bullock, Justin Knox), 2012 (Marcus Paige, Brice Johnson, J.P. Tokoto, Joel James) and 2014 (Theo Pinson, Joel Berry, Justin Jackson), UNC has not duplicated the same type of success compared to Duke and Kentucky in a short span of time.

For example, Duke won the NCAA championship in 2010 and 2015. Kentucky won the national championship in 2012, but lost in the national championship to Connecticut in 2014.

Since 2010, either Duke and/or Kentucky have been in a Final Four, every year but twice. Both teams were in the 2015 Final Four.

In regards to North Carolina, the Tar Heels lost to Villanova in the 2016 national championship a few months ago. Prior to 2016, UNC’s last Final Four berth was in 2009 when they won the national championship.

Let’s look at some recent years’ freshman recruiting classes in college basketball between Duke and Kentucky.

Kentucky wooed everyone with their elite class of 2009 freshmen, consisting of John Wall, Eric Bledsoe, John Hood, Daniel Orton, Darnell Dodson and Demarcus Cousins.

Wall, Bledsoe and Cousins stole the show that season.

In the same year when Duke was crowned the champion, their 2010 class included current Cleveland Cavalier point guard Kyrie Irving, Josh Hairston, Tyler Thornton and Andre Dawkins. As a whole, Duke’s 2010 was mediocre, but it included the 2011 No. 1 NBA draft pick in Irving.

Kentucky’s Calipari followed up his 2009 blue chips with another star-studded class in 2010 that included Brandon Knight, Terrence Jones, Enes Kanter, Doron Lamb, Stacey Poole and Eloy Vargas.

One of Calipari’s best Kentucky freshman classes was the 2011 class.

Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Marquis Teague and Kyle Wiltjer led this 2011 freshman-heavy squad led to a national championship.

Duke did not have another top-tier recruiting class until Jabari Parker joined their class of 2013 as he was joined by current Blue Devil Matt Jones and Semi Ojeleye.

In the class of 2014, Duke had Grayson Allen, Tyus Jones, Justise Winslow and Jahlil Okafor. In the same year, Kentucky had Devin Booker, Trey Lyles, Tyler Ulis and Karl Anthony-Towns.

Both classes were full of five-star recruits and it paid off for Duke.

As stated earlier, both Duke and Kentucky were in the 2015 Final Four. Although Kentucky lost in the national semifinals to Wisconsin, it was their only loss for the entire season.

On the other hand, Duke won the national title and both teams were led by their freshmen. During this time, North Carolina had good teams each year, but they were not one of the premiere teams in the nation.

Calipari had outstanding classes in 2012 (Nerlens Noel, Alex Poythress, Archie Goodwin, Willie Cauley-Stein) and 2013 (Julius Randle, Andrew Harrison, Aaron Harrison, James Young, Dakari Johnson, Marcus Lee), also.

In the past three recruiting classes, Kentucky has signed 12 five-star prospects. Duke has signed 11. North Carolina has signed four.

In the class of 2016, Duke and Kentucky edged out Carolina in their signings of North Carolina-based players: Harry Giles III (Duke) and Edrice “Bam” Adebayo (Kentucky).

Last year, potential 2016 No. 1 NBA draft pick Brandon Ingram (Duke) admitted that he would have committed to UNC if possible NCAA sanctions (which no longer exist) were not an issue.

After being left out of the Giles and Adebayo race, things got worse for the Tar Heels.

Last week,  class of 2016 five-star center Marques Bolden committed to Duke.  His final two choices were Duke and Kentucky respectively. Leaving Roy Williams and North Carolina in the dust.

Bolden’s commitment to Duke gives the Blue Devils a slight edge over Kentucky, as the top recruiting class of 2016.

Bolden is the No.1 center, Giles is the No. 1 power forward and Jayson Tatum is the No. 1 small forward in the class of 2016.   On the other hand, Kentucky has the No. 2 shooting guard (Malik Monk), No. 2 point guard (De’Aaron Fox) and the No. 2 power forward (Adebayo).

Despite this, both Kentucky and Duke are considered favorites for the 2017 national championship.

Where does this put UNC?

Clearly  Williams has not signed the same amount of the top basketball players as Duke’s Krzyzewski and Kentucky’s Calipari in recent years.

However, this does not mean that Roy Williams is not good at recruiting or that he does not want to win. Williams’ philosophy on basketball and recruiting differs from Krzyzewski’s and Calipari’s.

One reason could be that Carolina does not sign a lot of “one-and-done” players. The last UNC player to go pro after one season of basketball was Brandan Wright in 2007. Wright’s class, which included Tywon Lawson, Wayne Ellington, Deon Thompson and Alex Stephenson, led Carolina to win their most games in one season in 2008 (36), in addition to a national championship in 2009.

However, that was nearly a decade ago.

Williams tendency to avoid one-and-dones has helped him build a solid UNC basketball program where most players stay for three or four years. For instance, Kentucky has had players going pro every year since 2010. Calipari embodies recruiting one-and-done players and Krzyzewski has joined the trend. In 2015, Duke lost Jones, Okafor and Winslow to the NBA after one season, which included a national championship.

North Carolina has recruited many of the players who end up choosing Duke or Kentucky. Based on this, yes, UNC has lost their recruiting edge to Duke and Kentucky.

Related Story: Update on UNC's 2017 recruiting class

The looming NCAA violations for UNC’s basketball program contributed to losing out on some top recruits. Nevertheless, North Carolina continues to be a contender for the national championship each year.

Despite losing to Villanova in the championship, North Carolina has made themselves relevant again as a national powerhouse.