Projecting The Tar Heels In The NBA
By Matt Hamm
Now that it’s official and senior Tyler Zeller will be joined by underclassmen John Henson, Kendall Marshall and Harrison Barnes in the NBA Draft this June. Each player could go in the top 10 and will likely land in the top 15 of the draft. Each has much different expectations and paths that led here. Marshall is no doubt on the highest swing up, seen as a limited athlete and scorer, a red hot March has erased many of the concerns scouts had. Barnes has taken the biggest dip since being a sure fire top five pick and potential #1 before the season. A weak postseason and a weakness driving and handling the ball could contribute to a drop for Barnes. Henson is the biggest odd ball of them all. Tons of talent but an obvious need to bulk up for the next level make him a boom or bust. Zeller is the safest of them all and could go a lot higher than you think. Enough with the introductions, let’s take a look at how each, now former Tar Heel projects to go in the draft and how each could fare as a pro.
Harrison Barnes: Pro’s Excellent shooter, can utilize his 6-8 size to get off his jump shot almost anytime he wants. Exhibits terrific body control around the basket when finishing at the rim. Has the ability to put up a ton of points in a hurry when he gets going.
Con’s Lacked the killer instinct throughout his college career. Fell apart in this years NCAA Tournament with UNC missing Kendall Marshall and needing him to come through the most. Doesn’t use his size enough to his advantage, has yet to develop a consistent post game. Has trouble handling the basketball and getting to the basket. Does not create well for others offensively. Is not a particularly good defender or rebounder.
Projected Draft slot Top 7
Tyler Zeller:Pro’s Excellent mid range jump shot that will translate well to the NBA. Terrific at running the floor, relentless effort, in excellent shape. Nice touch around the rim, consistent free throw shooter. Very high basketball IQ, solid passer out of the double team. Better defender than he gets credit for, does a nice job of gaining position on the block for the rebound. Nice post game and can finish with either hand.
Cons Gets pushed around the block by bigger, more physical players in the post. While efficient in the post, Zeller does not possess any killer or dominate moves that will translate to the next level. Could have trouble defensively against power offensive players. Has a tendency to force up shots around the rim and needs to develop better decision making in terms of when to pass out.
Projected Draft slot 10-15
Kendall Marshall:Pro’s One of college basketballs all time greatest passers, Marshall is a true throwback point guard. Marshall broke the single season UNC and ACC assists records in his sophomore season. The engine to everything the Tar Heels did his value was magnified in his absence during the Heels final two NCAA Tournament games. Terrific in both the half court and especially in transition. Marshall has legendary court vision and finds the open man before the defense even sets themselves very often. Does not turn the ball over, makes quality decisions. Good finisher at the basket when he gets a chance to get off his finger roll.
Con’s One on one defense is a problem for Marshall who was routinely beat by his man and is at a disadvantage against quick PGs. Not a very quick player his lateral movement could be a particular problem on the defensive end of the floor in the NBA. Before the final month of his college career, Marshall was not a scorer and his jump shot was a real liability in the half court. Marshall is a career six points per game scorer and shied away from taking even wide open shots until this March. In March, Marshall shot almost 60% from the field and 50% from three scoring almost 15 ppg. Marshall demonstrated the ability to penetrate when the lane is open and finish at the basket. Suddenly he was knocking down jumpers with regularity and taking the three point shot with confidence. This was only one month of his two year career at Carolina. Marshall will have to work hard on his offensive game to prove he can translate it to the NBA.
Projected Draft slot 10-15
John Henson: The two time ACC Defensive Player of the Year Henson is a monster on the defensive end. Kentucky’s Anthony Davis aside, Henson is the top shot blocker in the nation. If you look at the last three years, nobody’s even close to him. He utilizes his length to his advantage and is able to block shots with either hand and is equally dangerous in one on one defense and help. An excellent rebounder, Henson thrives at getting the right position even if he’s physically outmatched inside. As a junior, Hensons game blossomed offensively. He can finish and shoot his patent jump hook shot equally effectively with either hand. A decent mid range jump shot with expanding range as he becomes a more confident shooter.
Con’s Not nearly as skinny as he was coming into Chapel Hill as a freshman, Henson’s frame will still get him into trouble in the pro’s. He will need to add significant upper body strength and sheer bulk to make it long term in the league. His offensive game came a long way in his junior season, Henson still has a long ways to go before he’s polished enough to contribute consistently on that end of the floor in the NBA. Of the four projected first round picks leaving Carolina, Henson is the biggest question mark due to the amount of physical development he needs before he can be a good pro. His FT shooting is the only part of his game that is flat out bad. Barely a career 50% shooter at the line, Henson needs a ton of work.
Projected Draft slot 13-20
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