UNC Basketball: Tar Heels vs Clemson Inside The Numbers


The North Carolina Tar Heels take on the Clemson Tigers in the Dean Dome at Chapel Hill.  ACC Basketball is always tough no matter what the stats tell you.  Conference play, especially when your Carolina and you get everybody’s best shot, is never easy.  Duke and Florida State won in miracle fashion to stay tied atop the ACC with the Tar Heels.  The Blue Devils come from behind 20 point win and FSU’s buzzer beater set up another must win.  The stage is set, the Dean Dome will be sold out and going wild (unlike some other ACC schools).  It’s time to go Inside the Numbers!

Somethings got to give: UNC has a huge advantage in the scoring department.  The Heels lead the nation with a 83.1ppg avg vs Clemsons 65.1 a +18 advantage for Carolina.  Defensively,Clemson gives up just 59.8ppg vs the Tar Heesl avg of 67ppg.  Making the Tigers defense on avg 8 points better than UNC.  Somethings got to give and tempo will be the deciding factor.  If UNC can get out and run and Kendall Marshall can push get the ball up in a hurry, Clemson’s in trouble.

If the Tigers can slow the game down and make it a half court battle, it’s Clemsons Defense vs the Tar Heels offense.  Where the game would then come down to which team shoots better from the field and who hits their free throws.  Both teams are pretty bad FT shooting teams with Clemson holding the edge 67.3% vs 66%.  UNC shoots the ball better from the field by a pretty good margin 46.3% vs 43.4%.  Clemson is one of the few teams that shoot the ball worse from down town than Carolina.  UNC holds a small 1% edge in 3pt shooting 34.3% vs 33.3%.

Heel Domination: As in every single match up it seems like the Heels have a huge advantage in average points and rebounds per game.  It’s not different in this one, Heels in a landslide in both.  UNC leads the nation in both categories and it’s their formula for success.  UNC dominates the boards and ignites their offense, they wear you down and frustrate you with offensive rebounds.  Clemson is a pretty good defensive rebounding team avg 21.8 per game, still almost 8 behind UNC.

 Defense wins championships (and single games sometimes): As we’ve all found out recently.  When your not making your shots, it all comes down to how you play defense.  UNC has shot a miserable percentage from the field the last few outings.  Missing layup after layup and open shot after open shot.  The one encouraging takeaway, Carolina is getting the shots they want from the field and they aren’t likely to continue missing them for long.  But if this is one of those games, it’s going to come down to how the Heels play on defense.  In a defensive match up, with a slowed down, half court pace, I can see the Tigers hanging around longer than we’d like.  The Tigers are cursed at the Dean Dome and ultimately will not win this game.  But they are capable of the upset if the circumstances are right.

CLEM Opponents59.842.771.535.631.59.122.411.
UNC Opponents67.038.769.731.934.811.723.011.814.16.33.321.3

NCAA Basketball

Rank and RecordsCLEMUNC
Strength of Schedule#120#10
Top 252-23-4
RPI Top 502-38-4

College Basketball Stats

#11A. Young252534.5613.5641.
#5T. Smith252532.2411.3245.771.636.85.240.764.484.042.121.720.282.28
#31D. Booker252428.610.9246.869.826.36.82.843.961.161.760.761.082.6
#24M. Jennings221725.59.36444.559.333.35.5451.5913.9551.0912.4550.7730.9092.545
#4R. Hall25918.364.1644.057.880.01.280.440.841.320.880.480.01.28
#1T. Sapp25917.63.8831.542.930.91.720.481.240.881.
#21B. Narcisse251114.522.9639.771.423.82.320.921.40.520.520.40.562.12
#10C. Baciu25410.64.2859.762.
#32K. McDaniels2419.753.545.151.935.31.6670.8750.7920.2080.3330.250.750.792
#22B. Sullivan2208.0451.45536.850.00.01.3180.3640.9550.0910.5450.00.1360.909
#15D. Coleman1707.8821.58828.662.514.31.00.1180.8820.4120.4120.1760.0590.529
#2C. Fields601.1670.33350.
#5K. Marshall262632.2696.69242.371.428.02.5770.1542.4239.5772.8081.3460.1921.5
#31J. Henson262629.23114.03850.647.10.010.3462.9627.3851.4621.3850.5773.1541.731
#40H. Barnes262627.34617.73146.872.742.55.0382.0772.9621.01.7311.1540.3851.615
#44T. Zeller262626.92315.69254.
#35R. Bullock26722.5778.34642.380.037.84.6151.6542.9620.9230.9230.6150.1921.115
#1D. Strickland191924.2637.47457.
#43J. McAdoo26013.8855.34639.860.30.03.6541.1922.4620.3080.7690.6540.2691.385
#15P. Hairston25013.366.4832.186.329.72.320.841.480.880.760.440.21.64
#24J. Watts2605.9621.30850.
#11S. White2204.2270.86425.044.427.30.4550.0450.4090.6820.1360.1360.00.727
#14D. Hubert1705.1180.76546.
#21J. Simmons1801.9440.536.425.00.00.7220.2780.4440.0560.1110.0560.0560.056

Advanced Stats

#11A. Young85.9121.052.822.251.556.230.727019.71423262.08.920.
#5T. Smith80.1110.150.519.953.656.430.526520.71332912.818.126.71.920.03.31.0
#31D. Booker71.1103.953.122.747.951.938.726123.013827111.818.09.00.716.81.64.3
#24M. Jennings55.888.444.523.746.949.032.422124.8981957.420.29.50.424.41.94.1
#4R. Hall45.697.450.113.446.449.353.511115.2551082.85.914.01.519.81.60.0
#1T. Sapp43.782.034.318.440.941.212.611716.840953.
#21B. Narcisse36.1100.849.013.743.347.430.87813.538787.512.
#10C. Baciu26.3101.652.721.259.760.531.19422.4499514.811.
#32K. McDaniels23.2105.652.722.
#22B. Sullivan17.671.036.915.736.838.221.04415.716315.315.
#15D. Coleman13.376.
#2C. Fields1.1212.7103.721.550.
#5K. Marshall80.6108.751.810.247.151.639.425016.11292710.
#31J. Henson73.0108.457.124.850.650.433.331222.217833810.
#40H. Barnes68.3114.756.329.551.755.639.934626.41953977.610.46.80.613.02.21.3
#44T. Zeller67.3120.262.523.853.959.351.831924.719938315.
#35R. Bullock56.4117.448.619.953.854.55.116615.3801947.312.
#1D. Strickland60.6111.257.713.
#43J. McAdoo34.796.552.520.639.844.755.213720.6711328.617.13.50.414.52.51.9
#15P. Hairston32.1112.248.424.843.050.237.213622.1651526.310.610.
#24J. Watts14.9115.761.810.950.049.746.43010.518349.
#11S. White8.9100.751.210.434.338.6112.52414.012241.09.322.
#14D. Hubert9.880.741.
#21J. Simmons3.985.344.919.036.334.836.31218.451014.721.84.30.516.61.52.7
CLEM Opponents1590.063.60.9447.
UNC Opponents1915.073.70.9146.690.944.647.120.251.913.634.528.358.146.90.8319.28.54.9

Brad Brownell vs Roy Williams

1North Carolina9-222-4
1Florida State9-218-7
4NC State7-418-8
5Miami (FL)6-515-9
9Virginia Tech3-814-12
10Wake Forest3-912-14
10Boston College3-98-18
12Georgia Tech2-99-16

NCAA Basketball

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