VCU presents UNC with a Henri Veesaar-sized problem for Hubert Davis to solve

North Carolina is not the same team without Caleb Wilson; that’s undeniable. However, when star center Henri Veesaar is on the floor, the Tar Heels have been able to keep their head above water. 

UNC won five of its final eight games after Wilson suffered his injury in a mid-February loss to Miami, and four of its last six with Veesaar healthy. Without Veesaar, though, things have been much worse. That’s both when he misses a game due to injury and when he has to sit on the bench for just about any duration. So, getting him to the bench will be VCU’s primary objective in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday at 6:50 p.m. ET in Greenville, South Carolina. 

Keeping Henri Veesaar out of foul trouble will be no easy task vs. VCU

Phil Martelli Jr. led VCU to an Atlantic 10 title in his first season after replacing Ryan Odom, who left for Virginia and led the Cavaliers to the ACC Title game last week. Martelli’s Rams are red hot entering the NCAA Tournament, winners of 16 of their last 17 games, and one of the biggest reasons that they’ve been so dominant over that stretch is their ability to draw fouls. 

For the season, VCU draws 19.8 fouls per game, 20th in the country and fifth-most among tournament teams. Over the Rams' final 17 games, that number has held firm at 19 per game, and their free-throw attempt rate of 42.9% is 94th percentile in Division I (per CBBanalytics.com) They play a physical style, and they get their opponents into foul trouble, which is bad news for Hubert Davis with a paper-thin frontcourt. 

Nobody on VCU draws more fouls than 6-foot-10 center Lazar Djokovic. He draws 2.6 shooting fouls and 2.1 floor fouls per game, and he’ll likely be Veesaar’s matchup on Thursday night. Djokovic is an athletic big man who can score in the post or face-up and attack slow-footed bigs in the A10. Veesaar will be a different challenge, but all it takes is a tight whistle, and suddenly, Veesaar is on the bench, and Djokovic is terrorizing Zayden High. 

How disastrous would it be if Veesaar were to get into foul trouble? Well, there’s a reason that UNC is only a 2.5-point favorite in this matchup. With Wilson off the floor this year, UNC still has a +6.8 net rating, but with Wilson and Veesaar out, that drops to -14.1. Many of those minutes have come in ACC play, and those have carried a net rating of -21.4, but VCU isn’t just a plucky mid-major.

Hubert Davis has had no answer for the non-Veesaar minutes since Wilson went out

The Rams are 45th in KenPom entering the tournament, three spots below SMU, which beat UNC at full strength and ahead of 10 teams in the ACC. VCU can absolutely punish UNC in the non-Veesaar minutes the way Clemson did in the regular season finale, and again in the ACC Tournament. 

So, Davis needs to find a way to keep the ship from sinking when his best player is on the sidelines, or to keep his best player out of foul trouble to limit the number of minutes without him on the floor. 

One way to do that could be to play Veesaar off Djokovic, allowing him to roam as a rim protector. However, that’s a dangerous game, and the trade-off could be catastrophic because the Rams go nine-deep with 32 percent or better three-point shooters, many of whom are quick enough to attack Veesaar if he’s attempting to close out from the paint. That amount of shooting makes zone a scary proposition as well. 

If Veesaar plays 35+ minutes, UNC should be good enough to win. But that’s a big ‘if’ and will be one of the reasons VCU is a trendy upset pick in the first round.