It was fair to expect North Carolina’s roster to be bulletproof after a $14 million offseason investment, but the cracks appeared as soon as the Tar Heels entered ACC play. Hubert Davis’s team started the conference slate 2-3, and West Coast letdowns to Stanford and Cal forced the fifth-year head coach to make sweeping changes.
Last Saturday, Davis finally sent Colorado State transfer point guard Kyan Evans to the bench, playing him just 10 minutes in an 84-78 loss to the Golden Bears. Then, on Wednesday, he made another move, swapping Jaydon Young for Jarin Stevenson.
That new lineup of Derek Dixon, Seth Trimble, Young, Caleb Wilson, and Henri Veesaar finally got the Tar Heels back into the win column, dismantling Notre Dame 91-69. Now, on Saturday in Charlottesville, that new lineup will be put to the test against No. 14 Virginia.
First-year head coach Ryan Odom has built one of the more efficient offensive machines in the country. One constructed to exploit the very weakness Davis’s lineup changes were meant to address: three-point defense.
Virginia’s sharpshooters are North Carolina’s worst nightmare
With Wilson and Veesaar patrolling the paint, opponents are shooting just 43.2 percent against North Carolina. That’s the fourth-lowest percentage in the country. But from the outside, it’s been bombs away. For the season, UNC opponents are shooting 33.8 percent from beyond the arc, but ACC opponents are knocking down threes at a 44.9 percent clip. That’s unsustainably bad and the primary reason for Davis’s lineup changes.
Odom’s Cavaliers, with an entirely rebuilt roster, rank 17th in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom, and much of that is tied to their stellar three-point shooting at 37.1 percent. Six of Virginia’s nine players in the regular rotation are shooting over 35 percent from deep, including 6-foot-9 forward Thijs De Ridder, who will force UNC’s oversized frontcourt to defend the three-point line.
Essentially, that’s the crux of Davis’s lineup tinkering. With Wilson, Veesaar, and Stevenson all in the starting lineup, UNC was too slow-footed to defend teams with multiple shooters. And, with Evans giving up driving lanes at the point of attack, opposing guards could penetrate to collapse the defense and kick out for threes.
The 6-foot-5 Dixon, replacing the undersized Evans, provides more resistance at the point of attack. Young in for Stevenson gives more perimeter switchability and quickness on the wing to close out on shooters. At least, that’s the theory. Even in a blowout win, a Notre Dame team that ranks 103rd in adjusted offensive efficiency went 8-for-25 for deep (32 percent).
So will it work against the best offensive teams in the ACC? We’ll get our answer on Saturday. If it does, Davis deserves credit for making the necessary adjustments to save the season. If not, he could be out of answers as his seat grows hotter.