The UNC basketball program just passed the halfway mark of their season, and the Tar Heels already find themselves in must-win territory.
Time is of the essence for the Tar Heels since opportunities to bolster a resume don’t come very often in a weak ACC. This matchup versus Wake Forest is a Quad 1 game for North Carolina. As it stands, UNC only has six remaining Quad 1 games in ACC play — making each one all the more important.
The Tar Heels were rolling with four ACC wins in a row, before losing a have-to-have it game versus Stanford in the Dean Dome. This goes down as UNC’s first Quad 3 loss on the season and marks the very first time UNC men’s basketball has lost to Stanford.
The loss to Stanford was devastating to UNC’s March Madness resume. The tournament committee rewards quality wins, but they also punish bad losses. From here on out, UNC needs to stack needle-moving wins, while also avoiding any more detrimental losses to weaker teams.
According to Bart Torvik, the Tar Heels still have a 72% chance of making the tournament and currently sit on the 9 or 10-seed line. This seems like some pretty generous odds, but still, for the moment, UNC appears to be teetering on the bubble.
North Carolina is in serious danger of missing the NCAA Tournament, and their season may hinge on their matchup versus a red-hot Wake Forest team. The Demon Deacons have won five in a row, and they haven’t lost at home — a perfect 9-0 on the season. The Tar Heels will have their backs against the wall as underdogs in a hostile environment. Can they come through when it matters most?
2024-2025 Season
North Carolina Tar Heels
Overall record: 12-7
Conference Record: 5-2
Home Record: 7-2
Away Record: 3-2
Neutral Site Record: 2-3
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Overall record: 14-4
Conference Record: 6-1
Home Record: 9-0
Away Record: 3-3
Neutral Site Record: 2-1
Key Players
North Carolina
RJ Davis (Gr. Guard) – 17.3 points, 3.9 rebounds, 4.0 assists
Ian Jackson (Fr. Guard) – 15.2 points, 3.7 rebounds, 0.9 assists
Seth Trimble (Jr. Guard) – 12.6 points, 4.7 rebounds, 1.7 steals
Wake Forest
Hunter Sallis (Sr. Guard) – 19.5 points, 4.2 rebounds, 2.9 assists
Cameron Hildreth (Sr. Guard) – 13.9 points, 4.1 rebounds, 3.2 assists
Tre’von Spillers (Sr. Forward) – 10.3 points, 8.8 rebounds, 1.4 blocks
Keys to Victory for North Carolina
Slow down Sallis
Now this task is much easier said than done. Sallis is a load on the offensive end, averaging the second-most points in the entire ACC. He’s the heart of this Wake Forest team, and the Demon Deacons go as far as he does. Sallis had some serious NBA buzz last offseason, but he came back to Wake Forest for his senior season and is once again proving his pro upside.
Notice this key to victory doesn’t say ‘stop Sallis’ — that’s not conceivable. But if Trimble can at least make life difficult on Sallis and deter the star guard from getting to his spots, that’s a big win for the Tar Heels. North Carolina’s best chance at victory involves throwing a lot of pressure at Sallis and taking him out of rhythm.
Challenge Spillers and Efton Reid III on the glass
North Carolina already played the best big man they’ll come up against in the ACC — Maxime Raynaud on Stanford. The duo of Jalen Washington and Ven-Allen Lubin played well and actually held their own against Raynaud, forcing him to take difficult shots.
Now Spillers and Reid III aren’t the caliber of player that Raynaud is, but they’re a very physically imposing duo. Spillers is a beast on the boards, averaging the third-most rebounds in the ACC. Spillers’ positioning is great, and he has impressive strength and spring. Reid III is a big body standing at 7-feet and 250-pounds — that’s size UNC just doesn’t have. To secure a win, the Tar Heels need to box out, gang rebound and limit Wake Forest’s size advantage.
Something to Watch for
The five-star freshmen duo of Jackson and Drake Powell has been outstanding for the Tar Heels. ‘Captain Jack’ is prolific, emerging as UNC’s most efficient scorer. He put together a historic stretch of six out of seven games with 20-plus points scored. Tar Heel Nation should enjoy Jackson while they can during his short time in Chapel Hill. Powell isn’t as flashy as Jackson, but he’s a true glue-guy, doing a bit of everything. His two-way play makes him the most versatile guy on UNC, and he holds an irreplaceable role. It’s safe to say these two have a bright NBA future ahead of them.
However, versus Stanford, Jackson and Powell were in a funk, struggling with quiet games. Be on the lookout for the freshmen duo to bounce back and be more aggressive at Wake Forest — UNC needs them on their A-game to get the win.
Projected Starters
No. 3 Elliot Cadeau (So. 6’1)
No. 4 RJ Davis (Gr. 6’0)
No. 11 Ian Jackson (Fr. 6’4)
No. 9 Drake Powell (Fr. 6’6)
No. 13 Jalen Washington (Jr. 6’10)