UNC Basketball hopes to ring in the new year right as they travel to Louisville

The Tar Heels look to take down the Cardinals on New Year’s Day.

Ian Jackson dunks during North Carolina v Campbell
Ian Jackson dunks during North Carolina v Campbell | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

North Carolina may have temporarily saved their season with their win over UCLA, but the Tar Heels still need to coast through ACC play to secure a respectable seed come March.

The UNC basketball program is heading into 2025 on a two-game winning streak, securing a signature win over the Bruins and taking care of business versus Campbell.

Can UNC keep their momentum rolling into their New Year’s Day game at Louisville — and into the heart of their season during ACC play?

Considering the grueling start to their schedule, UNC’s 8-5 record is nothing to sneeze at. However, the ACC has been the weak link of the Power 5 conferences this season. In a struggling conference, opportunities for signature wins are few and far in between for UNC. So, it’s critical that the Tar Heels dominate their ACC schedule.

Quadrant 1 wins are one of the biggest factors in determining March Madness seeding. Each of the four quadrants are calculated using the NCAA’s Net Rankings. Quadrant 1 wins are classified as wins over a top-30 team at home, a top-50 team on a neutral floor, and a top-75 team on the road. In the current moment, UNC is No. 39, and Louisville is No. 60. So, this is a Quad 1 game for North Carolina since the Tar Heels are away.

As it stands, North Carolina only has six Quad 1 opportunities in ACC play, so this feels like a game UNC needs to have. Of course, the quadrant rankings are in flux throughout the season as the Net Rankings adjust. However, with so few Quad 1 games, UNC needs to make the most of every chance they get.

2024-2025 Season

North Carolina Tar Heels

Overall record: 8-5
Conference Record: 1-0
Home Record: 5-1
Away Record: 1-1
Neutral Site Record: 2-3

Louisville Cardinals 

Overall record: 8-5
Conference Record: 1-1
Home Record: 5-3  
Away Record: 1-1
Neutral Site Record: 2-1

Key Players

North Carolina 

RJ Davis (Gr. Guard) – 18.8 points, 4.3 rebounds, 3.9 assists
Seth Trimble (Jr. Guard) – 14.8 points, 4.8 rebounds, 1.7 assists
Ian Jackson (Fr. Guard) – 13.2 points, 3.1 rebounds, 0.7 assists

Louisville 

Chucky Hepburn (Sr. Guard) – 15.2 points, 3.5 rebounds, 5.2 assists
Terrence Edwards Jr. (Sr. Guard) – 14.7 points, 3.5 rebounds, 2.3 assists
Reyne Smith (Sr. Guard) – 13.1 points, 3.1 rebounds, 0.5 assists

Keys to Victory for North Carolina

Guard-heavy game 

Based on the key players above, this game will be won by the better group of guards. North Carolina and Louisville have a similar team identity: both sides have guards galore, yet both struggle with post-production.

Louisville’s best big, Kasean Pryor, averaged 12 points, 6.1 rebounds and 1.6 steals per game, but his season was cut short by a torn ACL. Without Pryor’s versatile, do-it-all game, the Cardinals’ frontcourt depth runs extremely thin. Louisville really only gets decent minutes from Noah Waterman and James Scott in the post. Obviously, UNC has had issues finding their go-to guy down low, with Head Coach Hubert Davis shuffling the starting lineup a handful of times in this young season. Ven-Allen Lubin and Jalen Washington need to hit their stride in ACC play for UNC to reach their ceiling.

The Cardinals and Carolina each boast four exceptional guards, meaning this is a true battle of the backcourts. A guard-heavy game is right in UNC’s wheelhouse. Can Davis, Trimble, Jackson and Elliot Cadeau be the superior backcourt and secure the Heels a win?

Ian Jackson

Maybe having one player as a key to victory is a bit much. After all, one player can’t win a team a game right? Well, when that player is as good as Jackson, that player can single-handedly carry UNC to victory.

Trimble missed the Campbell game with an upper-body injury, so Jackson got his first career start at UNC. “Captain Jack” was electric, logging a career-high 26 points on a red-hot 56% from the field. Jackson has established himself as UNC’s most efficient offensive threat and a crunch-time closer, along with Davis. He’s put together a special freshman campaign, averaging 17.3 points in his last six games.

Something to Watch for

As mentioned, Trimble was sidelined last game, and updates regarding his health have been limited. While there haven’t been any rumblings that Trimble’s injury is a serious one, his health is certainly something to monitor.

Trimble has been a breakout star in his junior year, and he’s a critical part of UNC’s success. He’s the Tar Heels’ second-leading scorer and their best perimeter defender, along with Drake Powell. Surprisingly, Trimble is also North Carolina’s leading rebounder. His athleticism and physical prowess are irreplaceable. Keep an eye out for additional news on Trimble.

Projected Starters

No. 3 Elliot Cadeau (So. 6’1)
No. 4 RJ Davis (Gr. 6’0)
No. 11 Ian Jackson (Fr. 6'4)
No. 9 Drake Powell (Fr. 6’6)
No. 13 Jalen Washington (Jr. 6'10)

Schedule

Schedule