The major takeaway for North Carolina from the last two weeks: this season has spiraled completely out of control.
In their last four games, the UNC basketball program is 1-3 — losing to Stanford by one, losing to Wake Forest by one, beating Boston College in overtime and losing to Pitt by eight. Quite frankly, this is not up to the Carolina standard. The Tar Heels are currently playing some of their worst basketball of the season, and that’s not good news for a team heading to Cameron Indoor Stadium.
North Carolina has already played in nine one possession games this season — tying the most in school history during the three-point era, according to GoHeels.com. The Tar Heels are a mediocre 5-4 in those nine games, which just isn’t going to cut it. On the other hand, the 2010-2011 squad was a clutch 8-1 in their one possession games.
North Carolina’s paths to make March Madness are narrowing, and nearly every path involves beating Duke at least once. North Carolina is 1-8 in Quad 1 games — one of the most important metrics used by the Selection Committee. As it stands, UNC only has three Quad 1 games remaining: Duke away, Clemson away and Duke at home. The Tar Heels desperately need to split the two-game series versus the Blue Devils, and they’ll need to knock off Clemson as well. Of course, UNC could receive an auto-bid to the big dance by winning the ACC tournament in March.
No. 2-ranked Duke comes into this matchup unbeaten on their home floor, a perfect 12-0 in Cameron Indoor Stadium. They’re also at the top of the ACC standings, sitting at 10-0 in league play. North Carolina has a tall task at hand, opening up as a 13.5-point underdog.
2024-2025 Season
North Carolina Tar Heels
Overall record: 13-9
Conference Record: 6-4
Home Record: 8-2
Away Record: 3-4
Neutral Site Record: 2-3
Duke Blue Devils
Overall record: 18-2
Conference Record: 10-0
Home Record: 12-0
Away Record: 6-0
Neutral Site Record: 0-2
Key Players
North Carolina
RJ Davis (Gr. Guard) – 17.6 points, 3.8 rebounds, 4.0 assists
Ian Jackson (Fr. Guard) – 14.7 points, 3.5 rebounds, 0.9 assists
Seth Trimble (Jr. Guard) – 12.3 points, 5.4 rebounds, 1.5 steals
Duke
Cooper Flagg (Fr. Forward) – 19.9 points, 8.0 rebounds, 4.1 assists
Kon Knueppel (Fr. Forward) – 13.1 points, 3.7 rebounds, 2.6 assists
Tyrese Proctor (Jr. Guard) – 10.4 points, 3.7 rebounds, 2.2 assists
Keys to Victory for North Carolina
Get Flagg in foul trouble
The Tar Heels will have their hands full with Flagg. The freshman phenom is the favorite to win ACC Player of the Year and considered a top-2 candidate for National Player of the Year, alongside Auburn’s Johni Broome. Flagg is a stat sheet stuffer, leading Duke in almost every major statistical category. North Carolina won’t be able to fully neutralize Flagg, but if they can limit his playing time, they automatically increase their odds at winning.
Flagg is an outstanding defender, so going at him sounds counterintuitive. But in reality, UNC needs to be aggressive and attack Flagg with the drive, forcing him into early foul trouble. Less time with Flagg on the court gives UNC a better shot at pulling off the upset.
Shoot lights out from 3
North Carolina has to be dialed in from deep to have any chance at winning this one. The Tar Heels need somebody shooting it like Kenny Williams did in 2018 versus Duke in the Dean Dome, or like Cormac Ryan shot it a season ago at Cameron Indoor Stadium. North Carolina needs somebody to step up for another signature rivalry performance. Davis or Jackson are UNC’s best bets to catch fire, so they’ll look to the graduate student and freshman for an offensive spark.
The 3-pointer is a focal point for UNC this game. Afterall, North Carolina won’t find much success driving to the dish amongst the trees. According to KenPom.com, Duke has the tallest average roster height in the entire nation. Meanwhile, UNC’s average roster height ranks just 322nd out of 364 total Division I teams. Putting it bluntly, this is a bad matchup for the Tar Heels. But if UNC can get hot from deep and make the game a fast-paced shootout, they might have a chance. Afterall, in this legendary rivalry, you may as well throw the records and resumes out the window.
Something to Watch for
The matchup of the game will be UNC’s freshman Drake Powell guarding Duke’s freshman Flagg. This will be a showdown between two high-pedigree recruits and two former High School McDonald’s All-Americans. Flagg has the height advantage, and obviously he’s a load on the offensive end. But Powell is an elite defender with smooth lateral movement, quick hands and springy athleticism. Powell will need to have the performance of a lifetime to slow down Flagg and give UNC their best shot at a win.
Projected Starters
No. 3 Elliot Cadeau (So. 6’1)
No. 4 RJ Davis (Gr. 6’0)
No. 11 Ian Jackson (Fr. 6’4)
No. 7 Seth Trimble (Jr. 6'3)
No. 22 Ven-Allen Lubin (Jr. 6'8)