Even the most ‘glass half full’ UNC fans will have trouble spinning this season in a positive light. Unfortunately, things look pretty bleak for the Tar Heels.
North Carolina is 1-10 in Quad 1 games — one of the most important metrics used by the Selection Committee. And to make matters even worse, only one team ever — yes, ever — has made March Madness with ten Quad 1 losses. Let that sink in. North Carolina’s hopes to make the Big Dance feel like they’re all but over.
The 20-point massacre that the UNC basketball program suffered at Clemson felt like it put an unofficial end to the season. The window for some miracle run may have officially slammed shut on the Tar Heels. Now, North Carolina heads to Syracuse for a matchup that UNC should — and needs to — win.
The most obvious path to March Madness for UNC is by winning the ACC Tournament for an automatic bid. But barring a heroic run, those are slim odds for the Tar Heels. North Carolina has proven they’re not in the same league as Duke, or even Clemson and Louisville. Odds are, UNC would need to take down a couple of those teams, along with others that caused them trouble, to win the ACC title.
To make March Madness without an ACC Tournament title, UNC essentially needs to run the table in their last seven ACC games. If the Tar Heels win out, they’d be 21-11 overall and 14-6 in ACC play. Plus, in this scenario, UNC would have a hypothetical win over Duke in their final regular season game, giving the Tar Heels their second Quad 1 win and a massive resume boost. But even if the Tar Heels win their next seven and beat Duke, they’d most likely still be firmly on the bubble. The Tar Heels may still need to win a few ACC Tournament games to push them over the edge. And all of this is a very unlikely feat. That’s just the harsh reality.
2024-2025 Season
North Carolina Tar Heels
Overall record: 14-11
Conference Record: 7-6
Home Record: 9-2
Away Record: 3-6
Neutral Site Record: 2-3
Syracuse Orange
Overall record: 11-14
Conference Record: 5-9
Home Record: 9-5
Away Record: 2-6
Neutral Site Record: 0-3
Key Players
North Carolina
RJ Davis (Gr. Guard) – 17.4 points, 3.7 rebounds, 3.8 assists
Ian Jackson (Fr. Guard) – 13.3 points, 3.3 rebounds, 1.0 assists
Seth Trimble (Jr. Guard) – 12.3 points, 5.4 rebounds, 1.5 steals
Syracuse
J.J. Starling (Jr. Guard) – 18.6 points, 3.8 rebounds, 2.5 assists
Eddie Lampkin Jr. (Sr. Center) – 10.4 points, 9.4 rebounds, 2.4 assists
Chris Bell (Jr. Forward) – 9.6 points, 2.0 rebounds, 0.5 assists
Keys to Victory for North Carolina
Where has Ian Jackson gone?
Not only is Jackson the key to this game for UNC, but he’s also the key to the rest of the season. Something is off with Jackson, and the Tar Heels need him at his best to make their miracle run in saving the season. After Jackson’s stretch of scoring 20-plus points in six out of seven games, he’s averaging just 7.4 points in his last seven games. ‘Captain Jack’ was the spark UNC needed, but recently, that spark has fizzled out. Jackson has to ignite whatever mojo he had going before this slump.
It’s tough to put a finger on the reason for Jackson’s lackluster performances, and it very well may be a multitude of reasons. Maybe it’s frustration with the season. Maybe it’s not being as aggressive and not looking for his shot. Maybe it’s a contagious lack of team effort. Maybe it’s being discouraged. Whatever it is, UNC needs the old Jackson back. And with a strong showing from Jackson, UNC should handle Syracuse with no problems.
Don’t play with your food
North Carolina is much more talented than Syracuse, and there’s no reason that UNC shouldn’t take care of business. Even with this being a conference road game, it’s still only a Quad 3 game for UNC. Not to mention, Syracuse just lost to a six-win, bottom of the barrel Miami team by seven. To put it bluntly, Syracuse is not a particularly good team, and the Tar Heels should win handedly, no excuses. Get to JMA Wireless Dome, dominate Syracuse and prepare for NC State in the Dean Dome on Wednesday — that’s UNC’s agenda.
Something to Watch for
Obviously, the headliner for Syracuse is Starling. He really lives up to his namesake, because he’s a surefire star and an All-ACC talent. However, the matchup that poses the biggest threat to UNC is actually Lampkin. His size and strength cannot be ignored. Standing at 6-foot-11 and 270-pounds, Lampkin is a load down low. North Carolina needs to minimize his impact on the glass. The Tar Heels have to box out, and get a body — or two — into Lampkin when a shot goes up. It’ll be interesting to see how UNC deals with Lampkin.
Projected Starters
No. 3 Elliot Cadeau (So. 6’1)
No. 4 RJ Davis (Gr. 6’0)
No. 7 Seth Trimble (Jr. 6’3)
No. 9 Drake Powell (Fr. 6’6)
No. 22 Ven-Allen Lubin (Jr. 6’8)