Notre Dame vs. North Carolina Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Tuesday, March 5 (Target UNDER)

Mar 2, 2024; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels forward Armando Bacot (5)
Mar 2, 2024; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels forward Armando Bacot (5) / Scott Kinser-USA TODAY Sports

North Carolina's drive for an ACC regular season title continues on Tuesday against upstart Notre Dame, who is playing its best basketball to finish the season.

Unlike several teams, including North Carolina, who play an up-tempo style of play, Notre Dame wants to slow the game down and look to be precise in its game plan. How will that drive our handicap of this one? We have you covered with our best bet for Tuesday's ACC matchup:

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Notre Dame vs. North Carolina Odds, Spread and Total

North Carolina vs. Notre Dame Betting Trends

  • Notre Dame is 16-13 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • North Carolina is 16-13 ATS this season
  • Notre Dame has gone UNDER in 19 of 29 games this season
  • Notre Dame has gone UNDER in 14 of 21 games this season as an underdog

Notre Dame vs. North Carolina How to Watch

  • Date: Tuesday, March 5th
  • Game Time: 7:00 PM EST
  • Venue: Dean Smith Center
  • How to Watch (TV): ACC Network
  • Notre Dame Record: 12-17
  • North Carolina Record: 23-6

Notre Dame vs. North Carolina Key Players to Watch

Notre Dame

Markus Burton: The 5'11" point guard has been doing all the heavy lifting for the limited Notre Dame offense, fresh off three straight games of 20 or more points which led to two wins, including upsets of Clemson and Wake Forest. Has Burton, and the Fighting Irish as a whole, turned a corner under first-year head coach Micah Shrewsberry?

North Carolina

RJ Davis: Davis will likely draw the primary assignment on Burton as the Tar Heels' top 10 defense looks to slow down the perimeter-oriented Irish offense. On the other end, look for Davis to try and penetrate and dish to the likes of Harrison Ingram and former Irish wing Cormac Ryan. ND's defense has been up to par in ACC play, second in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency in ACC play. but Davis has been at an All-American level all season.

Notre Dame vs. North Carolina Prediction and Pick

Notre Dame wants to grind games to a halt, and while the UNC offense should be able to generate plenty of clean looks, I believe the under is the best bet.

The Fighting Irish have the worst offense in the ACC, despite Burton's singular excellence. The team is last in effective field goal percentage and doesn't get to the free-throw line very much. The team also milks to shot clock, opting to play in the halfcourt. This does help the under as UNC doesn't pressure the ball much, 13th in ACC turnover rate on defense.

On the other side, North Carolina has been struggling to score effectively, leaning on its transition offense to put up high-point totals. However, Notre Dame has been stout in the open court and should challenge the Tar Heels offense that is 10th in effective field goal percentage.

While UNC isn't on upset alert by any means at home, the game should stay below the total.


Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.