North Carolina vs. Virginia Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Saturday, Feb. 24 (Target total)

Feb 17, 2024; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels forward Armando Bacot (5)
Feb 17, 2024; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels forward Armando Bacot (5) / Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

North Carolina continues to work towards an ACC regular season title with a tough road trip against Virginia.

The Woos have been a tale of two teams on the road and at home, will North Carolina be able to handle what's been an impossible task of winning in Charlottesville? Let's break down this high level ACC matchup on Saturday using FanDuel Sportsbook's odds!

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North Carolina vs. Virginia Odds, Spread and Total

Virginia vs. North Carolina Betting Trends

  • Virginia has gone UNDER in 16 of 27 games this season
  • North Carolina is 15-11 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • Virginia is 1-4 ATS as an underdog this season
  • Virginia is 14-1 straight up at home this season

North Carolina vs. Virginia How to Watch

  • Date: Saturday, February 24th
  • Game Time: 4:00 PM EST
  • Venue: John Paul Jones Arena
  • How to Watch (TV): ESPN
  • North Carolina Record: 20-6
  • Virginia Record: 20-7

North Carolina vs. Virginia Key Players to Watch

North Carolina

Armando Bacot: Bacot has had some defining moments against Virginia, including scoring 29 points in a home win against the Woos back on January 8th last season. The big man has been able to break through against the normally stout Virginia defense, can he put it together on the road against the Cavaliers?


Isaac McKneely: The sophomore is the one to watch on the UVA offense, shooting 46% from three on a high rate of attempts this season (north of five per game). UNC's defense is still tops in three-point percentage allowed, but be careful of that as the Tar Heels are still allowing a ton of uncontested threes this season, ShotQuality has the team 331st in open three rate.

North Carolina vs. Virginia Prediction and Pick

This is a battle of two prevailing thoughts heading into Saturday's tilt.

One is that the UNC defense can't possibly continue to contain opponents from beyond the arc, holding teams to the lowest three-point percentage in ACC play, but the other is that Virginia's limited offense can't continue to shoot nearly 40% from beyond the arc.

Despite either being true, I believe that the under is the best course of action for this matchup, mainly because of how both defenses play.

North Carolina's defense doesn't pressure the ball and turn opponents over, but do an incredible job on the glass. UNC is the best rebounding team in the country, but the team is 299th in generating turnovers. I believe that Virginia, who is bottom 10 in the country in adjusted tempo, per KenPom, will be able to hunt for the best shot and take time off the clock, opting to avoid a shootout against an explosive UNC offense.

Meanwhile, while Bacot has had plenty of success against the Woos in the past, the Virginia defense is incredibly reliable, ninth in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency and incredibly compact, allowing a three-point rate north of 40% and allowing the 27th lowest two-point field percentage.

I think this game is more of a rockfight than being projected. For what it's worth, the three meetings in Charlottesville since Hubert Davis took over the Tar Heels, the five games have averaged 124 points.


Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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