You can’t say that Drake Maye’s second season in the NFL couldn’t have gone better. It certainly could have. He finished as the runner-up for the MVP, and on Sunday night, his New England Patriots fell to the Seattle Seahawks 29-13 in Super Bowl LX.
Still, that’s pretty close to best-case scenario. And yet, just because he had his breakthrough in Year 2, doesn’t mean he’ll get this close to the mountaintop ever again. In fact, NFL history almost universally says the opposite.
1st-time Super Bowl losing QBs rarely ever avenge their loss
Dan Marino, like Drake Maye, was not the first quarterback to come off the board in a loaded QB draft in 1983. However, like Maye, he pretty quickly established himself right at or near the top of the pecking order.
In 1984, Marino’s second year with the Miami Dolphins, he didn’t just enter the MVP race; he won it outright, throwing for 5,084 yards and 48 touchdowns while leading the Dolphins to the Super Bowl. Miami fell 38-16 to Joe Montana’s San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl XIX.
The assumption was that the young QB would be back plenty of times, but he never returned and never won his title. Strangely, Marino isn’t the exception in this regard. Only four quarterbacks have ever won a Super Bowl after losing in their first trip to the big game: Len Dawson, Bob Griese, John Elway, and Jalen Hurts, who accomplished the feat last year.
Prior to Maye, eight quarterbacks had made the Super Bowl in their second season: Dan Marino, Kurt Warner, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson, Joe Burrow, and Brock Purdy. Warner, Brady, Roethlisberger, and Wilson won it. The others have, to this point, never made it back to the Super Bowl. Burrow and Purdy have plenty of time to provide a positive counterpoint, along with Maye himself.
2026 could be a career-defining year for Drake Maye
Drake Maye is obviously a top-tier NFL quarterback. Yes, his team was buoyed by a favorable schedule in 2025, and that may have helped to inflate his efficiency. And yes, he will inevitably face some statistical regression against tougher opponents in 2026. But no, Drake Maye isn’t going to fall off a cliff. He isn’t some paper tiger.
Even in 2024, Maye put together an incredibly impressive rookie year despite playing with a lackluster wide receiver corps and a porous offensive line. He’s on a path to be one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. A bit of a step back in 2026 won’t completely derail that trajectory, but by expediting New England’s rebuild with his immense improvement in Year 2, Maye has made it considerably more difficult for the franchise to add talent around him and plug the holes that Seattle exposed.
The Patriots still have the financial flexibility to swing a big trade for a star wide receiver or pay up in free agency for a left tackle to slide Will Campbell into guard. But that needs to happen this offseason before the roster congeals around its franchise quarterback, and it becomes more difficult to maneuver in the offseason.