After a long Saturday of college basketball, Joe Lunardi released his bracketology update for ESPN on social media, and for North Carolina, it just doesn’t add up.
As Isaac Schade of LockedonHeels pointed out, heading into the day, UNC sat as the 4th No. 5 seed in Lunardi’s bracket prediction. Then, after No. 18 UNC beat Virginia Tech 89-82 to move to 4-1 since Caleb Wilson’s injury, the Tar Heels moved down to the six-line. But that’s not the worst of it.
As Schade further detailed on social media, three SEC teams in front of North Carolina heading into the day, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt, all lost, as did Virginia, which sat on the four-line, falling to Duke 77-51 in Durham.
In Lunardi’s update, Virginia fell to a four-seed, and Arkansas, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt were the next three teams after the top 16 overall seeds were set, with St. John’s jumping into that “next” group over the Tar Heels.
Got it.
— Isaac Schade (@isaacschade) March 1, 2026
UNC was the 4th 5-seed earlier in the day.
They win.
The 3 SEC teams in front of them lose (Arkansas, Tennesee, Vandy).
The last 4-seed (Virginia) loses (a team UNC beat).
Instead of UNC moving up, they go DOWN to the 6 line, while St. Johns moves up.
Neat. https://t.co/R9ucqft6SL
UNC falls off the five-line in Joe Lunardi’s midday bracketology update
Lunardi’s latest full bracketology update came on February 27, and it had North Carolina as the six-seed in the Midwest Region facing 11-seeded Auburn or TCU, which were slated to matchup in the First-Four.
Schade’s reference to UNC as the final five-seed was in Lunardi’s other midday update, which was posted to social media about three hours before the final update of the night. It featured UNC as the final team in the “next” group, before it was overtaken by St. John’s.
Rick Pitino’s Johnnies had one of the most confusing weeks of any team in college basketball, falling to UConn 72-40 on Wednesday, then turning around to throttle Villanova, presumably the third-best team in the Big East, 89-57. Even if you’re willing to write off St. John’s debacle in Hartford, it’s still rather shocking that UNC wouldn’t leapfrog Arkansas, Tennessee, or Vanderbilt.
The good news for Tar Heels fans is that Lunardi is not the final decision-maker when it comes to the bracket, and frankly, he’s largely been surpassed as the most reliable bracketologist in the media. While he’s still the preeminent voice for the largest network, Lunardi’s reputation has waned in recent years.
Still, the Heels are a six-seed in Jerry Palm’s Sunday morning update for CBS Sports, with that same SEC triumvirate joining St. John’s on the five-line.