Armando Bacot, not Paolo Banchero, should be ACC Player of the Year

It’s North Carolina’s Armando Bacot, not Duke freshman Paolo Banchero, that should be the current frontrunner for ACC Player of the Year.

Duke freshman forward Paolo Banchero began the 2021-22 college basketball season as the prohibitive favorite to win Player of the Year in the Atlantic Coast Conference.

Banchero received 28 votes from the media in mid-October when preseason honors were voted on, a dozen more than Virginia Tech’s Keve Aluma. Banchero also received 64 of the 81 votes for ACC Freshman of the Year and the third-most votes (49) for first team All-ACC behind Syracuse’s Buddy Boeheim (68) and Aluma (52).

All of the hype surrounding Banchero, while annoying and aggravating to UNC fans, was well-deserved. He averaged 22.6 points, 11.6 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 1.6 blocks per game during his final season at O’Dea High School, and he was arguably the best player in the class of 2021.

And Banchero hasn’t disappointed through the first few months of what will be his lone season of college hoops. He’s obviously one of the most talented newcomers in college basketball. For the record, Banchero should win ACC Freshman of the Year, and he’ll undoubtedly be on the shortlist of players in consideration for National Freshman of the Year.

But Banchero shouldn’t be the current frontrunner for ACC Player of the Year. That honor belongs to North Carolina’s Armando Bacot. That is if we are basing the award off of the actual performance on the court and not things like potential and projections and NBA Draft status.

After all, college awards are for the best college players, not the ones deemed sure-fire lottery picks or those destined to be the most successful professional players. Sometimes, however, the most accomplished college players are the ones that present the most talent and potential at the NBA level.

We saw that in recent seasons with players like Carmelo Anthony, Kevin Durant, Anthony Davis and Trae Young, as all four won the USBWA National Freshman of the Year award in their respective one-and-done seasons before incredible pro careers. On the other hand, we saw the complete opposite with players like Tyler Hansbrough, Michael Beasley, Jared Sullinger and Jahlil Okafor, a quartette of celebrated college players whose professional careers never really panned out.

But their professional success or lack thereof doesn’t add to or take away from their prestigious college honors. And it’ll be no different this season if Bacot wins the award, as he should, but doesn’t achieve as much success at the next level as Banchero, who will almost certainly be selected in the top-five of this year’s draft.

Set aside all of the hype and it’s actually more difficult to make an argument for Banchero as ACC Player of the Year than it is Bacot.

Bacot is averaging 16.6 points per game for the 11-4 Tar Heels, just 0.7 points fewer than the sensational Duke freshman. And while that’s a negligible difference, their efficiency is not. Bacot is connecting on 64.2 percent of his shots this season, while Banchero is sitting at 49.4 percent.

Granted, Banchero has more range than Bacot and a number of his attempts are from farther away from the basket, but that doesn’t diminish what Bacot is doing. In fact, Bacot’s eFG% (effective field goal percentage), which places more weight on three-point field goals, is still nearly 11 points higher than Banchero’s.

Additionally, Bacot is averaging a career-high 11.1 rebounds per game, 3.2 of which come on the offensive glass. His counterpart grabs just 7.5 and 1.7 rebounds, respectively, and has recorded just two double-doubles to Bacot’s 11. And despite Banchero’s height and length, he’s averaging less than a block per game. Bacot is averaging a career-best 1.5 blocks per game.

Advanced metrics paint the same picture, as Bacot currently has a PER (Player Efficiency Rating) of 31.7, while Banchero’s is substantially lower at 26.1. Bacot also leads in win shares — the number of wins contributed by a player based on their offensive and defensive contributions — by a tally of 3.0 to 2.5. Bacot’s ORtg (offensive rating) of 128.1 and DRtg (defensive rating) of 93.7 are also better than Banchero’s (115.0, 95.1).

There’s also the eye test, the one that makes it obvious that this North Carolina team might not even have a .500 record without the contributions of Bacot. And while Banchero’s contributions to the Blue Devils are considerable, I have to believe that his team, one loaded with talent from top to bottom, would be much better than that even if he weren’t around.

Armando Bacot should be the ACC Player of the Year this season, and if the voters can see past all of the glam and hoopla surrounding Banchero, he will be.

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