UNC Basketball vs. Wisconsin: Game preview, info and more

The UNC Basketball program opens up what they hope will be a long 2021 NCAA Tournament run on Friday night as they take on No. 9 seed Wisconsin in the South Region.

It was just over a month ago that the Tar Heels found themselves on the bubble and needing to play better to get into the big dance. They did just that and closed out the year strong, beating Louisville, Florida State and Duke on consecutive Saturday’s before going 2-1 in the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament. Those games certainly helped the Tar Heels not only cement their bid but up their stock as well.

First up for the Tar Heels is a matchup with No. 9 Wisconsin out of the Big Ten on Friday night in West Lafayette, Indiana.

While UNC enters the game at 18-10, the Badgers finished 17-12 overall and played in a very good Big Ten conference. Wisconsin went 6-1 in non-conference games with their only loss to Marquette, a team that also beat UNC by double-digits. The Badgers, like the Tar Heels, beat Louisville by 30+ and looked good in their brief non-conference schedule. But when it came to the Big Ten, they struggled.

The Badgers did have wins over Rutgers, Maryland and Michigan State, all tournament teams, but when facing the top competition in Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio State and Purdue they went a combined 0-9.

Looking at this game, metrics like KenPom and NET ranking do favor the Badgers, a team that turns the ball over on 13.5% of possessions, the second-best rate in Division I. However, looking at North Carolina, they will certainly have the edge in the paint with their rotation of four bigs.

The Tar Heels are the best offensive rebounding team in the nation at 41.3% and No. 3 in total rebounds per game this season. They are also among the best in second-chance points per game, a metric which could determine who advances. The Tar Heels pack a punch in the paint with Garrison Brooks, Armando Bacot, Day’Ron Sharpe and Walker Kessler as part of their rotation this season. Wisconsin is a team that averages just 33.6 rebounds per game, good for 287th in the nation.

The Badgers best rebounder is senior Micah Potter who averages 5.9 per game. After that, their next best rebounder is at 4.5%. However, if you make your shots rebounding won’t be as big of a factor and the Badgers are a pretty good shooting team.

Wisconsin’s style of play is similar to Virginia’s too and that’s not good news for UNC. We have seen the Tar Heels’ struggle with teams who play like Virginia over the years as the Badgers like to slow the game down and play at their pace.

That’s the opposite of UNC’s style which is to be a fast-paced team and get out on their breaks for easy buckets. If UNC can dictate the pace, they should be fine. But if they play to Wisconsin’s strengths, that’s not a great matchup.

Key to Victory for UNC

Dominating the paint on both ends. This topic has been exhausted all week long leading into this game and rightfully so. It’s a big factor and the single biggest key for a Tar Heels’ win. They have the frontcourt talent to take over this game and at times this season we have seen UNC go to the paint and use it to their advantage.

That’s what they need to do against the Badgers.

While Wisconsin isn’t a team to sleep on, they should struggle in the paint against UNC’s talent and it’s not only rebounding that can be a factor. The Tar Heels’ length should come into play in terms of blocking shots and getting into the passing lanes. If UNC can dominate the paint and wear out the Badgers, they should find themselves moving on.

Something to watch

The Badgers are a solid three-point shooting team, making 35.94% of their attempts on the season which is 72nd. UNC has had trouble defending the three ball on the perimeter and if the Badgers get hot with their style of play, it could be a long day for the Tar Heels.

UNC is going to have to force Wisconsin into contested looks and be very good defensively. If they can do that, it will make the game a bit easier. But that’s going to be a big key for the Tar Heels and they have struggled with that in the past.

What you need to know

WHAT?  No. 9 Wisconsin Badgers (17-12, 10-10 Big Ten) vs No. 8 North Carolina Tar Heels (18-10, 10-6 ACC)
WHEN? Friday, March 19 at 7:10 p.m. ET
WHERE? Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, Indiana
TV? CBS
RADIO? Tar Heel Sports Network
LINE? UNC -1.5
LAST MEETING? UNC beat Wisconsin 71-56 on November 23, 2016 in the Maui Invitational
ALL-TIME SERIES? UNC leads 2-1
PREDICTION? UNC 80, Wisconsin 72

For more on the UNC Basketball program including a recap of this game, please check back with Keeping It Heel.