UNC Basketball vs. NC State: Game preview, info, prediction and more

The UNC Basketball program opens up Atlantic Coast Conference play on Tuesday night as they head down the road to Raleigh and take on N.C. State.

After a 5-2 non-conference record, the test gets more important for the No. 17 Tar Heels with the beginning of conference play. And they are facing a tough road test right away.

N.C. State enters the game unranked but 4-1 overall and had their first conference game of the year postponed against Louisville. The Wolfpack just completed a 1-1 week with a loss to Saint Louis and a win over Campbell over the weekend. This is an interesting Wolfpack team coached by Kevin Keatts that does have some talent but has yet to face a big test this season.

UNC will be that first big test for the Wolfpack.

On the other side, UNC is coming off a big win over the weekend in the CBS Sports Classic vs. Kentucky in Cleveland, pulling away from the Wildcats late. While UNC won their second-straight game after two-straight losses, there are still some concerns.

And those concerns could be exploited against a good opponent. The Tar Heels have really struggled to from the three-point line as well as from the field overall. They don’t have a true knockdown shooter, although freshman Kerwin Walton has provided a boost off the bench.

Still, these concerns need to be fixed especially as the competition gets tougher. The Wolfpack is a good shooting team and an experienced one, averaging 81.8 points per game and giving up just 60.2 per game. But they really haven’t faced a good team yet and those numbers could be a little skewed.

Entering this game N.C. State is led by senior guard Devon Daniels who is averaging 16.2 points and shooting 47.7 percent from the field. Fellow senior guard Braxton Beverly is averaging just 8.4 points per game but is shooting 51.7 percent from the field.

As for UNC, they are led by senior forward Garrison Brooks who is averaging 11.7 points per game while shooting 50 percent from the floor. Brooks is just one of UNC’s players in the paint that have been a strength so far this year. Sophomore forward Armando Bacot is averaging 11.4 points per game while freshman Day’Ron Sharpe is averaging 8.3 points per game.

That doesn’t take into account the rebounding from that trio which have truly made them a dominant force in the paint. The Tar Heels are dominant once again on the boards averaging 45.4 rebounds per game, compared to N.C. States 34. That could be a HUGE difference in this game.

Let’s get into our preview.

Something to Watch

One thing I want to keep an eye on is freshman Kerwin Walton and the minutes he gets in this game on Tuesday. While it’s been a bit of a slow start to the season, Walton had a good game against Kentucky playing a season-high 15 minutes and scoring 13 points. The wing went 3 for 3 from the field, all from three-point range.

It’s no surprise that Walton provided a spark for the Tar Heels off the bench as he was known to be a knock down shooter in high school. But continuing that onto the next level will be key and could translate into him getting more minutes.

Let’s see if Walton gets an uptick in minutes for this one and if he plays well for a good stretch, it could force Roy Williams’ hand into making a rotation change.

Key for UNC

Knock down shots. It sounds basic but the Tar Heels need to shoot the ball better in this game in order to win. They are at just 43.4 percent from the field in terms of shooting through seven games and have had some struggles in this area.

We talked about Walton potentially seeing more minutes but I need to see the guards shoot better from the field in Caleb Love and R.J. Davis. They need to get going and score early and often for UNC to have a shot. A good shooting night will go a long way for the Tar Heels…

Projected Starting Lineup

G — Caleb Love

G — R.J. Davis

F/G — Leaky Black

F – Garrison Brooks

C/F  — Armando Bacot

What you need to know

WHAT?  No. 17 North Carolina (5-2) AT N.C. State (4-1)
WHEN? Tuesday, December 22 @ 7:00 p.m. EST
WHERE? PNC Arena in Raleigh, North Carolina
TV? ACC Sports Network
RADIO? Tar Heels Sports Network
LINE?  UNC +1.5
LAST MEETING? North Carolina beat N.C. State 85-79 on Feb. 25th in Chapel Hill
ALL-TIME SERIES? UNC leads 114-57
PREDICTION? UNC 73, N.C. State 71

For more on the UNC Basketball program, please make sure to check back with Keeping It Heel.