UNC Basketball: Blue Devils won’t beat Tar Heels for this 5-star wing

The UNC basketball program again faces off with rival Duke for one of the nation’s top prospects.

The North Carolina Tar Heels and Duke Blue Devils are no strangers to each other. They’ve been battling it out on the hardwood for better than 100 years, and consistently rank among the top teams in college basketball. They’re almost dead-even in both points and victories against each other over the past couple of decades, and their six combined national titles since 2000 are more than any other pair of programs in college basketball.

It’s on the recruiting trail where we’ve seen the biggest disparity between Duke and North Carolina in recent years. Mike Krzyzewski and his coaching staff have brought in a recruiting class ranked in the nation’s top-3 each of the past seven years. On four occasions, the Blue Devils were ranked first, bringing in as many 5-star prospects as any program in the nation, including John Calipari’s Kentucky Wildcats.

That may very well be the case again this year, given that the Blue Devils already have a pair of 2021 prospects in tow that rank among the nation’s top 10. They’re also looking like the prohibitive favorite to land 5-star small forward Patrick Baldwin, Jr., the No. 1-ranked recruit in the 247Sports Composite. Not only that, but they’re also a strong contender for top-20 shooting guard Trevor Keels, who at 6-feet-5-inches tall and 210 pounds, could play the wing for Duke, too. And it’s because of those four players that the Tar Heels, and not the Blue Devils, may have the upper hand when it comes to the recruitment of 5-star wing Caleb Houstan.

Houstan is a consensus top-10 prospect that’s preparing to announce his final four schools on October 7. He’s currently working with a list of better than a dozen programs that, along with the Blue Devils and Tar Heels, includes Arizona, Gonzaga, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia.

And although there’s really no current indication where Houstan will commit, or even which four schools will make his final list, there’s a good chance that Duke has already recruited itself right out of the mix. With small forward A.J. Griffin (No. 6) and center Paulo Banchero (No. 3) already committed to Duke, a pledge likely on its way from Baldwin, and potentially one from Keels, too, why would a potential one-and-done prospect like Houstan join the Blue Devils?

The amount of playing time Houstan would get in Durham would likely be substantially less than he’d see at practically every other school he’s holding a scholarship offer from. Even the Tar Heels, who have a wealth of size and talent in their front court, have more to offer Houstan than the Blue Devils. For several years now, Roy Williams and company have struggled to bring in elite wing prospects. Houstan fits that mold, and would have a solid chance of starting as a freshman next season despite the team’s aforementioned depth.

Houstan has kept his recruitment pretty quiet to this point, leaving us with mostly guessing and conjecture as to where he’ll end up. We’ll know a lot more once he cuts his list down on Wednesday, but my guess is that the Tar Heels will make his quartette of finalists with a real shot at earning his commitment. If the Blue Devils do, it’s merely window dressing.

Stick with Keeping It Heel for all the latest on Caleb Houstan’s recruitment, and everything UNC basketball.