UNC Basketball: Tar Heels’ hopes for 5-star wing dwindling

Roy Williams and the UNC basketball program had high hopes of reeling in a 5-star wing in 2020, but the chances for that have all but come and gone.

Since receiving a commitment from Nassir Little in October of 2017, Roy Williams and the North Carolina Tar Heels have come up on the losing end of every 5-star wing recruitment they’ve been involved in. And it’s not that they haven’t cast a wide net over the past couple of years; they simply haven’t been able to get over the hump with any one of the prospects they’ve targeted in that time.

In 2019, it was IMG Academy’s Josh Green, Montverde Academy’s Precious Achiuwa and Keion Brooks of La Porte, Indiana. At one point, the Tar Heels appeared to have a pretty good shot at Green and Achiuwa, while Brooks never really felt like a guy headed to North Carolina. The three 5-star recruits eventually committed to Arizona, Memphis and Kentucky, respectively, leaving North Carolina without a solid replacement for Little after his departure for the NBA.

The Tar Heels also missed out on Cox Mill’s Wendell Moore, a 4-star small forward who seemed like a near lock for the Tar Heels before rival Duke got involved in his recruitment. Things were looking pretty good with Jalen Wilson, too, but Kansas was able to reel in the 4-star wing after his decommitment from Michigan. They even missed out on 3-star prospect and Cary, North Carolina native Justin McKoy, who ultimately picked Virginia over UNC.

Results haven’t been much different in 2020, where the Tar Heels have failed to bring in their top wing targets for the second consecutive year. Earl Timberlake and Cam’Ron Fletcher, a pair 4-star prospects ranked inside the top-50 of the 247Sports Composite, chose to commit elsewhere, despite the tireless efforts of Williams and company. It’s also completely evident at this point that the Tar Heels’ No. 1 wing target, Ziaire Williams, is almost undoubtedly picking a school other than North Carolina. We highlighted that in a piece last week, and Rivals recruiting analyst Corey Evans hit that same point home again on Wednesday for Tar Heel fans that are still hoping to see Williams in a North Carolina uniform next season.

"“Don’t get your hopes up,” Evans said of Williams choosing UNC. “I would be very, very surprised if one, Ziaire Williams leaves the West Coast for college, and two, picks North Carolina. Sure, the two have been connected all of the way back to the prior college season, when he took an unofficial visit to Chapel Hill. UNC then placed a heavy emphasis on him throughout last summer and the early fall, but since then their chances have dwindled.Arizona, Stanford and USC are the three to beat. The Cardinal are the ultimate dark horse of all dark horses, while many see Arizona and USC as the leaders. The Wildcats have a major need for a go-to weapon on the offensive end, and USC could plug him in alongside top-rated center Evan Mobley in his back yard (Los Angeles). There is also a chance that he could pass on the college path entirely and play overseas for a year before entering the 2021 NBA Draft. Regardless, the chances are very, very slim that he picks UNC.”"

The silver lining in all of this, though, is that North Carolina did get a commitment from 4-star small forward Puff Johnson, the younger brother of former UNC sharpshooter Cameron Johnson. And while Johnson is a nice addition to the Tar Heels’ 2020 recruiting class, he’s probably not the type of player that’s ready to come in and make an immediate impact, at least not the way that Williams would.

Williams is likely to be a one-and-done player, while Johnson is far more likely to stick around Chapel Hill for multiple seasons. That could end up being far more valuable for the Tar Heels than one season of Williams roaming the wing. Johnson might actually be the better shooter, too, though Williams certainly has him beat when it comes to athleticism and play-making ability.

Regardless, the Tar Heels’ roster today is probably what it will be when the season begins in November. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, though. They’ve already got one of their best recruiting hauls of the Roy Williams era; a class that ranks third in the nation behind just Kentucky and Duke. And who knows how it would turn out with Williams on the roster as opposed to without him? After all, the Tar Heels narrowly missed out on highly touted 5-star prospect J.R. Smith in 2004, just months prior to winning the first of Roy Williams’ three national titles.

Check back with Keeping It Heel for all the latest on the Tar Heels’ 2020 recruiting class, and everything UNC basketball.