UNC Basketball: Roy Williams looks to tie Dean Smith in career wins against Yale
UNC basketball returns to Chapel Hill on Monday to play its final game of the 2010s and give Roy Williams a chance at tying Dean Smith’s 879 career wins as head coach
Following a much needed 74-64 victory over UCLA (7-6) and nine consecutive days of rest, the Tar Heels (7-5) return to Chapel Hill to play their final nonconference game of the season against Yale (10-3).
The Bulldogs have remained atop the Ivy League standings for a second straight season after losing four players at the end of last year. Yale extended its current win streak to seven games after upsetting Clemson 54-45 on December 22. One day later, the Bulldogs received their first AP Top 25 vote of the season.
Much of Yale’s early success can be credited to its defense. According to KenPom.com, the Bulldogs are posting a 91.7 defensive efficiency rating this season, ranking 42nd in the country.
With the help of team steals leader Jalen Gabbidon, Yale’s perimeter defense has shown no signs of weakness against Power Five and mid-major competition, holding opponents to 27 percent three-point shooting on the year. The Bulldogs even limited No. 20 Penn State to 18.5 percent shooting from beyond the arc during the teams’ November 23 matchup in State College.
Familiar faces on Yale’s roster have become the most unlikely of solutions to the team’s rejuvenated scoring efforts this season. Most notably, junior forward Paul Atkinson has embarked on a breakout year, averaging 17.2 points per game after only scoring 9.1 points per game in 2018-2019.
Atkinson’s ability to play like a traditional, orthodox power forward that showcases the quickness of a shooting guard has allowed Yale to reliably run more pick and roll sets with a higher degree of confidence. Intelligent off-ball movement and dive action from Atkinson in these scenarios have produced high-efficiency scoring for the Bulldogs, allowing the Florida native to lead the Ivy League in field goal percentage (65.9 percent) for a third straight season.
Throwing guards and three-point threats Azar Swain and Matthue Cotton into the scoring mix also forces defenses to stretch out, which gives Yale the well-rounded attack needed to win games.
Key to the game for UNC
North Carolina is only converting three-point attempts at a 29.8 percent clip this season, the worst rate in the Roy Williams era. Considering Yale’s perimeter protection already has the potential to cause problems for UNC, the Tar Heels will need to stick to what they know against an otherwise balanced team: rebounding and creating additional scoring chances.
For better or worse, rebounding is the only major statistical category the Tar Heels have not experienced a sharp decline in this season — no other team in college basketball tallies more than North Carolina’s 44.6 rebounds per game. Because UNC records countless boards, it possesses a stark advantage in creating extra scoring chances. North Carolina ranks 71st in extra chances per game created while Yale ranks 312th, according to TeamRanking.com.
Any additional scoring opportunities created — whether from opponent turnovers forced or team turnovers prevented — will also be necessary to mitigate UNC’s poor shooting against Yale.
Player to watch
Although Cole Anthony finally received approval to dress for practice, there is no official date set for his return. However, North Carolina’s Monday matchup against Yale has the potential to become the Armando Bacot show.
Bacot is one of three players on the UNC roster averaging 10+ points per game this season in spite of logging just 21.8 minutes per game. And unlike his fellow post-playing counterpart Garrison Brooks, Bacot is showing the initiative to operate in iso scoring opportunities earlier in his college career, with or without designed plays.
The North Carolina freshman’s 8.4 rebounds per game help North Carolina cling onto its identity as a glass-dominating team. He has also shown occasional flashes of defensive dominance against teams like Oregon, and playing directly across from a player of similar stature in Paul Atkinson can create for a compelling matchup that could serve as a test of Bacot’s true scoring capabilities.
What you need to know
What? North Carolina 7-5 (1-1 in ACC) vs Yale 10-3 (0-0 in Ivy League)
When? Monday, December 30, 7:00 p.m. EST
Where? Dean Smith Center – Chapel Hill, North Carolina
TV? ACC Network
Radio? Sirius 81, XM 81, Internet 81
All-time series? UNC leads 6-1
Last meeting? UNC won 85-74 (February 4, 1980)
Prediction? Yale 73, UNC 69