UNC Basketball: The eruption of Coby White and his NBA draft stock

Keeping It Heels’ Verdict

It would be an understatement to say that Coby White is a good point guard. Really, it would be an understatement to say that Coby White is a great point guard.

Coby White has been nothing short of phenomenal as a point guard at the college level, routinely exciting fans and audiences with his crafty ball-handling, acrobatic finishes around the rim, and impressive shot-making from the perimeter. Although he entered the college scene as a score-first (and second, third, fourth, etc.) guard, he’s managed to slowly figure out the rhythms and motions of Carolina’s secondary break, improving his ability to break down defenses and take whatever his opponents gave him. His emergence as a viable point guard isn’t too surprising — after all, he showed plenty of flashes throughout his high school/prep career, but his improvement this season has been impressive nonetheless.

A blur in the open court, White manages to get to the rim at will, where he’s shooting 67 percent, showcasing a knack for finishing through and around contact, whether it’s with the use of crafty footwork or mid-air adjustments. Only 17.9 percent of his shots at the rim have been assisted on, per Hoop-math, suggesting that he’s capable of splitting defenders and getting to the rim all on his own, a positive trait for a point guard whose main draw is his self-creation as a scorer.

His ball skills, while having improved significantly in only a few short months as a collegiate star, still leave something to be desired. White has a metaphorical bag, there’s no question about that. He’s proven himself to be adept at splitting the pick-and-roll and breaking down defenders with flashy behind-the-back moves and hang dribbles, but his overall handle still needs improvement.

Many of his turnovers and poor shots this season were a result of losing control of the ball, due to his handle being higher and looser than it should be. It’s unfortunate that his dribble is so unpolished, considering how advanced his ability to decelerate and accelerate is.

White is certainly capable of creating space and lots of it, with his favored move being his powerful step back. Combining quickness and force, White is able to decelerate and pop back for a jumper, often losing his defender in the process. Outside of his step-back, White’s showcased other dribble moves (in-and-outs, hesitations) and displays of crafty footwork (euro-steps, side-steps, crab-dribbles), hinting that he has more room to grow as a creative scorer off the dribble.

Yet, on the season, White is only in the 29th percentile in shots off the dribble in the half court, scoring 73 points on 116 possessions (0.629 PPP, 27th percentile) according to Synergy Sports Tech. The flashes are plentiful, but his reputation as a pull-up shooter isn’t backed up by the stats — not yet, at least. A lot of his sub-par shooting can be explained through his inability to create optimal looks on a consistent basis, as well as shaky decision-making as a scorer. Instead of kicking it out to open teammates, pulling his dribble back to reset the offense, or making the simple drive, White can fall in love with his step-back or pull-up jumper, taking ill-timed shots that clank off the rim and frustrate Roy Williams in the process.

For what it’s worth, this is genuinely the first season that White has played as the primary facilitator on a competitive basketball team, with his high school days being filled with combo-guard duties that essentially gave him free reign to score at will. Of course, due to his size and length, he’s better suited to play as a point guard, both in college and in the NBA, so learning how to run an offense is key. White has found success maneuvering the pick-and-roll, netting 0.95 points per possession (75th percentile) in pick-and-rolls including assists.

Although he prefers splitting the pick-and-roll to either attack the basket or pop back out for a jumper, he’s found more success as a passer than scorer — his passes out of the pick-and-roll net 1.407 PPP (97th percentile) — finding success whether he’s passing to the roll-man, spot-up shooter or cutter. (If he were to improve his handle and pull-up shooting while maintaining this pick-and-roll vision, watch out.)

He’s made progress throughout the season in regard to his decision-making, but he still has a ways to go. He’s not perfect there, which gives some analysts pause regarding his lead-guard prospects; of course, some analysts point toward his rapid improvement as a reason to believe that he’ll continue to hone his skills and thought processes.

What attracts NBA personnel to Coby White is his potential as a primary creator at the next level, serving as a tall point guard who can be viable both on and off-ball. He’s shown flashes as a pull-up scorer, more than Ja Morant and more than Darius Garland (granted, the latter’s sample size is very small due to injury), and he is by far the best pure shooter of the bunch. In catch-and-shoot possessions in the half court, White is scoring a blistering 1.339 PPP, ranking in the 93rd percentile in the nation. Nearing elite-status as a shooter off-the-catch, White is easier to fit into an offensive system, since he doesn’t need the ball to be effective — a trait that has some draft evaluators placing him ahead of Morant and Garland.

His positional size is useful, too, not only for his ability to play the 1 or 2 (for spurts, more or less), but for the sake of defending at the next level. While Morant and Garland are both shorter and slimmer, the 6-5 White is able to stand much taller than many opposing point guards. Quick feet, high energy and improving instincts lend credence to the belief that White will be an average defender at the next level (he’s already in the 67th percentile in on-ball defense), showing potential both on-ball and as a team defender.

His short wingspan (6-5) and slim build are troubling, since they cap him as a guard defender with no real room to defend out on the wing against bigger forwards (and bigger guards, for that matter); but, when comparing his defensive chops with the aforementioned two guards, he does fare better, even if he projects to be an average defender at the next level. (Essentially, the less you give up on defense, the less you have to do on offense to make up for whatever points are lost.)

Overall, the questions pertaining to his fit at the next level evolve heavily on what role and position he can play full-time as an NBA guard, and whether or not his ability to run an offense will continue improving. He has the size to play sparingly as a two-guard, but it’s uncertain if he is viable there full-time, since he may not have the size to match up against bigger wings. But, if his ball-handling and floor vision fail to improve, would that mean he’d have to play up a position anyway? Or, rather, would he then be reduced to playing primarily as a bench scoring sixth-man?

That seems to be his “floor” projection, that of a volume shooter off the bench, with his ball skills and shot-making being the main thing that could keep him from being a starter. There’s nothing wrong with becoming a bench scorer, but such a projection does impact where teams will want to draft him; if he is seen as someone who will max out as a good sixth man (or just an average rotation player off the bench), then he’s not worthy of a lottery pick.

These concerns are valid. Decision-making, facilitation, and off-the-dribble shooting are all things that he’s been working on this season, with some games going better than others. We would argue, though, that his apparent improvement in all areas of his game are enough to justify that White is capable of growing as a lead guard at the next level, due to his support system and strong work ethic. It’s easy to believe in someone like White, which is why so many draft evaluators — both hobbyists and professionals — have him in the lottery of this year’s NBA Draft.

We agree wholeheartedly. Given his elite shooting off the catch, his size at the position, the speed at which he plays with, his passable defense, his improvement in the passing game, and his flashes as a pull-up scorer, White, perhaps, has the most potential out of all of the point guard prospects in this year’s draft, more so than Morant and Garland and everyone else. White has the potential to grow into a good (or really good) scoring point guard due to his offensive skill set, a ceiling outcome that is sure to attract plenty of teams on draft night. He’s not a perfect prospect, but he’s certainly appealing to NBA front offices.

If it were up to us, we’d place him firmly in the lottery, going as high as fifth overall depending on how the NBA Draft Lottery shakes out in May. White could be snagged by a number of teams with lottery selections. His ability to play on and off the ball makes his fit on these lottery teams easy to figure out, since a team needing either a point guard or shooting guard could theoretically select him. If we were to list the teams that could be interested in his services, we’d seriously be listing every single team in the lottery right now.

Like we said earlier — there’s plenty to like about Coby White.

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