Keeping It Heel
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NCAA Tournament: Breaking down the Midwest Region for UNC Basketball

By Zack Pearson

CHAPEL HILL, NORTH CAROLINA - MARCH 09: Coby White #2 of the North Carolina Tar Heels reacts after a play against the Duke Blue Devils during their game at Dean Smith Center on March 09, 2019 in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)
CHAPEL HILL, NORTH CAROLINA - MARCH 09: Coby White #2 of the North Carolina Tar Heels reacts after a play against the Duke Blue Devils during their game at Dean Smith Center on March 09, 2019 in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /
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CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – DECEMBER 22: Keldon Johnson #3 of the Kentucky Wildcats handles the ball while being guarded by Kenny Williams #24 of the North Carolina Tar Heels in the second half during the CBS Sports Classic at the United Center on December 22, 2018 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – DECEMBER 22: Keldon Johnson #3 of the Kentucky Wildcats handles the ball while being guarded by Kenny Williams #24 of the North Carolina Tar Heels in the second half during the CBS Sports Classic at the United Center on December 22, 2018 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) /

Toughest matchups for UNC

A No. 1 seed has only beaten a No. 16 seed once in NCAA Tournament history with UMBC shocking the world and beating Virginia last year. But I don’t see that happening again in 2019.

The Tar Heels should be able to cruise past Iona in the first round and earn a spot in Sunday’s Round of 32 matchup. From there, things could get a little interesting as there is one team that might be able to give UNC some trouble in that next round.

Utah State (Round of 32)

The Aggies aren’t a bad team at all and would be the tougher matchup in the Round of 32 over Washington.

After being picked to finish near the bottom of the Mountain West Conference, Utah State started the year 5-0 and even beat Saint Mary’s by 17. They finished the season 30-5 overall and enter the NCAA Tournament on a 10-game win streak. The Aggies are very balanced and are led by junior guard Sam Merrill, who averages 21.2 points and 4.2 assists per game.

Entering the NCAA Tournament, the Aggies rank 34th in Efficiency by KenPom. They rebound well, averaging 40.2 per game and really could give UNC some fits in that area.

But what they don’t do well is guard the perimeter. Opponents are shooting 34.9% from behind the three-point line against Utah State, an area where the Tar Heels could take advantage.

Kansas (Sweet 16)

If UNC does get out of the first weekend this year, they will play the Sweet 16 in Kansas City and there’s one matchup that I don’t like, for obvious reasons. The committee seeded Kansas No. 4 in the Midwest Region and rewarded them with what will be a pro-KU crowd in Kanas City if they reach the Sweet 16.

We know about UNC’s struggles with Kansas in the past and playing what would be a road game, makes it even tougher.

The Jayhawks are in a down year this season and UNC will likely be favored if the two teams do meet. However, it’s the Sweet 16 and this could be a nightmare matchup for the Tar Heels.

Kentucky (Elite 8)

Let’s say UNC takes care of Utah State and Kansas. Guess what? They could see a rematch with Kentucky.

For the second time in the past three years, UNC and Kentucky could meet in the Elite 8 for a trip to the Final Four. I’ll be honest here, Kentucky really is the only team that scares me in this Region and the one that really could beat UNC.

The Wildcats are good. There’s no denying that and we saw what they did to UNC in Chicago when the two teams met in December. The thing about Kentucky is they are a mismatch for UNC in the paint, with Reid Travis and P.J. Washington. UNC is  a better team now than they were in December but this is the matchup I’d like to avoid.

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